Brainy's Share Market Toolbox Brainy's
Share Market Toolbox


Public Presentations

 
Brainy's Share Market Toolbox
 
Robert has delivered a number of presentations to various audiences, including:
the Australian Investors Association (AIA) Melbourne, and AIA Conference (2015),
U3A (Manningham, Melb), and U3A Nunawading, VectorVest User Group (Melb),
 ASA (Australian Shareholders Association) Melbourne,  Melbourne PC User Group (WASINT SIG),
and a number of chapters of the ATAA - Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, Canberra, Newcastle
(Australian Technical Analysts Association).

Looking for a specific investing/trading topic? Try the Toolbox Master Index.

PLEASE NOTE: The information and tools provided here
are supplied in good faith, and
no guarantee is made as to their accuracy or reliability,
and no liability can be accepted for their use or misuse.
 


Testimonials
See what people have to say about Robert's presentations to various groups.

Also see:
Sensible Investing,
Contrarian Investing Redefined,
Funda-Technical Analysis.

You are here: Share Market Toolbox > Members GatewayPublic Presentations
Related links: Toolbox Master Index, eBook Articles Master ListMisc docsShare Trading Tools
Premium Members Gateway, Why Join as Toolbox Member?, Toolbox How To Join

Table of Contents

Or jump to more details below
 

INVESTING in the Share Market 

More INVESTING in the Share Market 

Technical Analysis and
Chart Indicators

Share Market 101 (aka Boot Camp) (2019-01a)
This 2-hour presentation is a cut down version of the full 6-hour seminar, prepared especially for the U3A Nunawading Summer School.
 
How much money do I need? (2020-02b)
The second in a series of topics on "Trading Insights", presented to the Melbourne ATAA early in 2020.
 
Medium Term Investing in Today's Awkward Markets (2016-06)
Some of the challenges in today's investing climate, and some
ways to address them.
 
The Perils of Long Term (buy and hold) Investing (2017-02)
Take a look at a few examples of high profile stocks and
blue chips that have suffered from significant share price falls.
And learn about some ways to help guard against these risks.
 
Psychology and Emotions of Investing and Trading (2013-07c)
An introduction to this difficult topic relating to the psychology and
emotions of investing, and introducing some strategies
to overcome them.
 
Sharemarket 101 - Avoiding the Pitfalls to Make Good Profits (2013-02)
Describing some of the common investing pitfalls, and identifying
some of the furphies to be aware of. This presentation was
recorded (at Box Hill Library) and the video recording is also available.
(Robert classifies some Share Market GEMs as furphies.
Also see the presentation below on Share Market GEMs.)
 
10 Key Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis (2012-02)
Explanation of ten key lessons that we can learn
from the GFC of 2008-2009, the effects of which impacted
on many investors' porfolios for years.
 
Investing Tips and Share Market Success Secrets (2014-09-2)
Some investing tips and hints to help you be more successful.
 
How to Preserve Capital and Minimise Losses (2011-09)
Explaining that blue chip stocks can be disappointing, and how to sleep at night with open positions in the market, and
considerations for managing the associated risks in the markets.
 
Brainy's Share Market GEMs (2011-03)
A discussion of many of the Wall Street cliches (words of
wisdom), and where some of them are actually furphies.
 
The Impacts of a Bear Market (2011-07a)
How bad can a bear market really be?
Especially if we buy and hold.
 
How to Avoid the Next Bear Market (anti-decimation) (2011-07b)
Some of the ways to spot and avoid a bear market.
 
How to Avoid the Next GFC and Bear Market (2013-07b)
This presentation is an update of an earlier one, and explains
some ways to avoid falling victim in a bear market
(or even in a significant market correction).
 
What would you do? How good is your investing judgement? (2014-09-1)
This presentation shows several price charts and offers the question: "would you be happy to buy this stock now?"
 
Trading Insights (2020-03)
The first of a series of sessions presented to the Melbourne ATAA group on topics such as: (a) What to trade? (b) How much money do I need?

Dividend Harvesting update (2020-07)
An update to the earlier presentation on this topic, but this time detailing the results of four short term investments, made with the sole intention of taking the pending dividend with no capital loss. It didn't quite work out that way, and the results might surprise you.
 
Dividend Harvesting (2019-11)
A good discussion about how to go about finding shares paying good dividends, and trying to avoid capital loss at the same time.
 
Searching for a strategy (2019-09)
Some clues and tips when looking for tips and ideas for a trading or investing strategy.
 
Trend Trading ASX Shares (2019-01c, and 2018-05)
Some of the finer things to be aware of when Trend Trading
shares on the Australian share market, so that
anyone without a concrete strategy can study
the details and understand what is involved. 
 
Nimble Short Term Investing (2015-08)
(and the very first version - 2014-11)
Identifying some of the shortfalls of the traditional investing
methods, and discusings the Nimble Short Term Investing
approach. This presentation was delivered to the
2015 AIA Conference on the Gold Coast.
 
Nimble Short Term Investing and Today's Stock Picks (2015-02)
An earlier version of the presentation above, identifying some
of the shortfalls of the traditional investing methods, and discussing the Nimble Short Term Investing approach,
but also including some stocks currently being "watched".
 
The Trader's Journey (2014-03-01)
This presentation describes one particular journey that
an investor had taken, and which prompted the investor
to become more short-term. As it happens, this story
is very common amongst investors.
 
Santa Rally - Fact or Fiction? - The Real Truth (2014-01-sr)
Is there really such a thing as the "Santa Rally"? If so,
exactly what is it? These questions are tackled in
this presentation.

How to Rank Stocks (and sectors) by Performance (2014-04)
This presentation explains one way to identify potentially
successful stocks, and how to sort them into a logical order.
 
Useful Tips for Managing Risk (2012-04)
Two presentations offer useful information about
how to manage risk in the markets, including
consideration of small cap companies
(which tend to suffer from low liquidity) and
high debt stocks.
 
Effective Position Sizing (2014-03-02)
To help optimise the profits form investing (and to
reduce any losses), there are ways to calculate
the optimum position size.
 
In a falling market (eg. a bear market) should we
keep stocks for the dividends? or sell?
 (2013-08)
This presentation is an update of an earlier one which looks at
a realistic portfolio of stocks and examines the damage
to the portfolio value that can result from holding stocks
during a bear market.
 
Trading in Practise (2016-04) and also 2015-07
These two sets of slides has been used to lead and facilitate a
workshop discussion, covering topics including: Trade planning
using a Trading Work Sheet, Specifying portfolio and
risk management metrics, Choosing a Stop Loss, 
Looking for a Target Price, Calculating Position Size
(using the "2 Percent Rule"), and Setting Trailing Stops.
Price charts - unlocking the secrets (Technical Analysis) (2019-01b)
A 2-hour session overview of technical analysis, to help the
average investor understand what it is and how to use it.
 
Technical Analysis - What is it really? (2014-08)
An overview of technical analysis, to help the
average investor understand what it is and how to use it.
Also see more information about technical analysis.
 
Candlesticks, Stop Loss and Contrarian Investing (2011-06)
An introduction to candlesticks, and to the notion of using
a Stop Loss to protect capital. Contrarian Investing
is also discussed. (See more on Candlesticks.)
 
Ranking stocks using bullish chart indicators (2017-11)
This presentation describes how to make bullish
observations of chart indicators, and apply a rank value
to sort the list by "degree of bullishness".

Chart Patterns (2016-05)
A presentation to the BullCharts User Group which summarises
the range of technical analysis chart patterns to help users
be aware of the variety, and how to identify them.
 
Exit Strategies (updated) (2015-11 )
(also earlier version: 2014-10)
This presentation describes a number of the more
popular (ie. more common) approaches used by traders
and investors to identify likely situations to consider
exiting a position. (See more on Exit Strategies.)
 
Analysing and annotating the price charts (2014-11-2)
This presentation explains some chart analysis techniques,
and how to record the observations on the price chart in
charting software to help quickly use it again later.
 
TradeSim software for back-testing (with BullCharts) 
(2016-10)
Two presentations that provide an introduction to the topic of
back-testing, and a demonstration of using the TradeSim
software with BullCharts to conduct back-testing.
(Back-testing is the relatively quick process of testing an
investing / trading strategy over a period of time.)

2014 - Market Outlook (2014-01-mo)
This presentation discusses one analyst's observations
of the market in anticipation of the year ahead.
 
Where's the Market Going? - Using the
"4 Windows" approach
(2013-10)
This presentation explores the "4 Windows" approach
to analysing the markets and the price charts.
 
Special insights into bullish observations of T.A. chart indicators, to help us rank stocks (2022-04)
Wouldn’t it be good if we could take a list of stocks (that might be your own stock universe), and sort the list with the strongest performing stocks at top of the list? That is, sort by the most bullish and have the most bearish at the bottom. And then invest in these stocks in anticipation of the best price performance.



  The slide presentations and more

(A) Free Slide Handouts
(B) Slidesets for Regular Toolbox Members and
(C)  Slides + Speaker Notes for Premium Toolbox Members.
Toolbox Presentations
Brief Synopsis

NOTE: If you have any trouble downloading the slide-sets, then try: (a) in Microsoft Internet Explorer:- Right-click on the desired image, then choose "Save Target As" to save the file on your computer; OR
(b) in Firefox:- Right-click on the desired image, then choose "Save Link As" to save the file.
(A) Free
Slide Handouts


Free presentation preview in "handout" form

(mostly 3 slides
per page)
(B)
Toolbox
Members*
slides


(2 slides per page)

Click on the image to download the slides
(C) Slides +
Speaker Notes


For Toolbox Premium Members*
(explanatory notes)

Click on the image to download the slides
2024 Upcoming
speaking engagements

Past speaking engagements
2023:
2022:
2021:
2020:
2019:
2018:
2017:
  • U3A Manningham - A practise run of the new "Ranking stocks using key chart indicator features" presentation (a last minute arrangement to fill in an unexpected speaker vacancy at U3A).
2016:
  • BullCharts User Group - Two presentations on using TradeSim to assist with trading strategy testing (presentations to be posted). October.
2015:
  • U3A (Manningham) - October, General Q&A.
  • U3A (Manningham) - July. Two topics were presented: an interpretation of their own favourite 24 stocks (no slides) and a preview of the Nimble Short Term Investing presentation that will be delivered to the AIA Conference in August 2015..
  • ATAA (Melbourne) - July, "Trading in Practise" - where we show a (past) price chart and invite the audience to advise whether they would trade or not, and where to place the Stop Loss, etc
2014:
  • U3A (Manningham) - 27th March 2014, double presentation: "The Traders' Journey", and "Effective Position Sizing".
  • Private Investing Club double presentation: "The Traders' Journey", and "Maximize Profits and Minimise Losses by following the Trend!" - Thursday 6 March (South Yarra).
2013:
  • Share Market "chat"... 1pm, Monday 25 February, 2013 at the Vermont South Community House. If interested, please phone the house to reserve a seat.
  • Aussie Markets Update (using the "4 Windows" approach - Thursday 17 January 2013, at the  Melbourne ATAA meeting.
2012:
  • Share Market Price Charts - Unlocking the Secrets - Robert 1-day TA Intro seminar in Sydney on Saturday 18 August, 2012.
  • "Trading in Practise" - A workshop for the BullCharts User Group, May 2012 (as a practise for an ATAA presentation in July 2012).
  • "10 Key Lessons from the Financial Crisis" - An update of the "Beware the Bears" material from 2009, Manningham U3A, Thursday 10th May 2012.
  • "Useful Tips for Managing Risk — Extra Detail". See at left.

    Manningham U3A Stockmarket group
    Thursday 16 February 2012.
  • "Useful Tips for Managing Risk — A Different View".

    Melb ATAA meeting Member Speaker, Thursday 19 January 2012.
2011:
  • Share Market Focus in Inverloch (South Gippsland, Victoria),
    26-27 November 2011 for two share market seminars..
  • U3A (Manningham), Thursday 22 September, 2011 - a discussion about Money and Risk Management (see at left), including Stop Loss and Position Size to maximise profits and minimise losses.
  • Share Market Focus in Inverloch (South Gippsland, Victoria), 29 July-2 August 2011 for a mix of seminars and presentations.
  • ATAA Perth, Thursday 19 May 2011, "Share Market GEMS"  (see at left) and "Anti-Decimation (How to avoid the next GFC)"  (see at left) - an updated version.
  • ATAA Melbourne, 14 April 2011. "Brainy's Share Market GEMs (Wall Street Words of Wisdom)". This presentation is based on the published Share Market GEMs materials. It is a new set of slides, different to all other presentations (see at left).
  • Manningham U3A (Sharemarket group), 31st March 2011, "Share Market GEMs (preview) + Picking Winners" (see at left).
     
  • Church Sharemarket Investment Club,  March 2011, "Anti-Decimation (How to avoid the next GFC)" - an updated version.
     
  • Various seminar dates - "Share Market Boot Camp", and "Technical Analysis Introduction and Overview".
     
  • ATAA Sydney, Monday 17 January, 2011,"Anti-Decimation (How to avoid the next GFC)" - an updated version.
2010:
  • ATAA Canberra, Tuesday 16 November, 2010, "Anti-Decimation (How to avoid the next GFC)" (see at left).
     
  • Melbourne PC User Group - WASINT SIG, October, 2010, Moorabbin, "Blue Chip Price Charts - Unlocking the Secrets using BullCharts software" (see at left).
  • ATAA Melbourne, 7 October 2010, "Anti-decimation" (see at left). 
  • Melbourne ASA (Australian Shareholders Association), 19 August 2010, "Blue Chip Price Charts - Unlocking the Secrets" (see at left).
  • U3A (Manningham), 19 August 2010, "Blue Chip Price Charts - Unlocking the Secrets" (see at left).
     
  • June 2010 - Manningham U3A (again) - "Investing / Trading Strategy Case Study".
     
  • Various dates - presentations to BullCharts User Group on a range of topics (eg. MACD, Stop Loss, RSI).

  • May 2010 - BullCharts User Group - "Share Trading Case Study" (see at left).
  • May 2010 - Manningham U3A - "Analysing the Share Market".

  • February 2010 - Manningham U3A group - Four separate presentations on the share market and charting, including "How to Spot a Bear Market" (at left).
2009: 2008:
  • July 2008 - Melbourne ATAA - "How to implement your Trading Strategy in Charting Software". See details at left.
2006:
  • December 2006 - Melbourne ATAA - "BullCharts Software - a brief introduction". See details at left.


More details
More information on some of the topics covered in the presentations:

Other information to look for

Also look for these other tools and documents in the Toolbox Members Area:


And whatever you do,
beware of the sharks in the ocean!

Beware the sharks in the ocean.

RECENT


"4 Windows" approach and Market Update
  February
2024

Is now the right time to buy into the market? Are any stocks worth buying right now? Should we use a market "Go/No-Go" filter to minimise risk? What is the best way to periodically review stocks and the market?

There are literally thousands of different ways to answer these questions, and all of them can be right. In this session Robert describes what he calls his “4-Windows” method of analysis, including:

  • Studying plain price,
  • Looking at the “big picture”,
  • Using key chart indicators, and
  • Considering volume.
And in this session he applies this analysis to the current market and he shares his market analysis. This session is full of useful tips and hints, and will provoke a lot of discussion.
 
This presentation was delivered to the Melbourne ATAA monthly meeting in February 2024 at the Arcadia Hotel South Yarra, and simultaneously broadcast to an online audience. A recording of the broadcast is available to ATAA members on the ATAA website.

Note: In the live presentation there were too  many slides to show in the time available, but all slides are included here.
[ref-2024-02]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
 
file size 3.4 MB
  34 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
 
file size 9 MB
  102 slides on 51 pages

See the first page(s) free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes



(pending)

2023


"I am never wrong! (or am I?)"
  November
2023

Many investors and traders have a background or career in engineering, mathematics or science, and in that field there is often just one right answer in many situations. These people are used to arriving at one correct solution to a problem, and they accept that all other proffered solutions are likely to be wrong.

With such a background, many of these people struggle with trading and investing because they are looking for the one correct answer when setting up a trade, or an investment position. So, once they enter a market position, they often refuse to accept that their decision might have been wrong, and so they hold on to losing positions for way too long. The end result? A loss of capital. Pause for a moment and ask yourself if you might be one of these people, and looking to be more profitable?

In this session Robert explores this problem, and explains how to identify this in ourselves and in our everyday life. He also explores ways to address the problem, and to be more successful with our trading and investing.

 
This presentation was delivered to the Melbourne ATAA monthly meeting in November 2023 at the Arcadia Hotel South Yarra, and simultaneously broadcast to an online audience. A recording of the broadcast is available to ATAA members on the ATAA website.
[ref-2023-11]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
 
file size 2.4 MB
  23 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
 
file size 4.4 MB
  68 slides on 34 pages

See the first page(s) free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 4.9 MB
68 slides on 68 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Dividend Harvesting - Definitive Guide
 
June 2023

Twice each year, there are several weeks when many companies go ex-dividend and then deliver dividends to their investors. Some investors buy and hold stocks primarily to capture the dividend for periodic income over time, while some traders try to harvest the dividends by holding the stock short term around the ex-dividend date.

There are problems with both of these strategies; but exactly what are the problems? What are the pros and cons of holding a stock for the dividend, either short term or long term? Did you know there are serious risks with either approach? Also, do you remember the broadly touted view that a stock’s share price will generally fall by the amount of the dividend? Well, that is absolute rubbish! It’s a complete furphy!!

In this session we explore these issues, and in particular we take a close look at how the share price typically performs around the ex-dividend date, and touch on things like:

  • The amount of notice a company gives regarding the upcoming dividend details.

  • How to find past dividend dates and dividend amounts.

  • Some of the publicly published Dividend Yield figures are rather confusing, while some are deceptively wrong!

  • Beware of seemingly large Dividend Yield amounts and special dividends.

This presentation was delivered to the Melbourne ATAA monthly meeting in June 2023 at the Auburn Hotel, and simultaneously broadcast to an online audience. A recording of the broadcast is available to ATAA members on the ATAA website.
[ref-2023-06]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
 
file size 2.9 MB
  26 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
 
file size 9.3 MB
  77 slides on 39 pages

See the first page(s) free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 8.3 MB
  108 slides on 108 pages

See the
first page(s) free


In-depth look at Candlestick Patterns (updated)
 
May 2023

This is an updated version of the presentation in KL in July 2022 and in Melbourne in August 2022.
 
Many of us realise that one candlestick on a share market price chart summarises the price action in one period (a day, or week, or month, etc.). A single candle can tell a story about the opinions of the real market participants during that period.
 
In addition to this, two or three (or more) consecutive candles can form a specific candle pattern and tell us even more of a story. However, there are lots of candle patterns, and each pattern has its own name.
 
So how can we go about learning and recognising these many patterns? How can we utilise just a small amount of knowledge about candle patterns to analyse many possible patterns on the price chart? In this session Robert explains a different approach to identifying and interpreting candle patterns.
 
In July 2022 this was a brand new presentation, based on bits and pieces from other presentations (including the Technical Analysis Introduction). It was  prepared especially for presentation to the ProTrader International Workshop in Kuala Lumpur in July 2022, and it was tweaked for the Melbourne ATAA webinar on 11 August 2022.
[ref-2023-05]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
 
file size 1.6 MB
32 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
 
file size 3.8 MB
  95 slides on 48 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 6.6 MB
  95 slides on 95 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Price Action Context
How to explain odd or unexpected share price movements?
February 2023


Have you ever observed odd or unexpected share price movements on the price charts and wondered what’s caused it? Or why there was a big move (either up or down) in recent days?
 
In this presentation we look at:
  • Price Action Context, and explain why it can be very useful to pay attention to the news and company announcements;
  • How to find the company news and announcements;
  • Broker consensus information and explain why it is useful to be aware of this and how to find the details.
This is most useful for shorter term investors and traders. And we also touch on some technical analysis basics.

[ref-2023-02]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
 
file size 3.5 MB
21 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
 
file size 7.8 MB
  62 slides on 31 pages

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 8.5 MB
  62 slides on 62 pages

See the
first page(s) free

2022


In-depth look at Candlestick Patterns
 
August 2022

NOTE: This presentation has been supplanted by an updated version above in May 2023.

Many of us realise that one candlestick on a share market price chart summarises the price action in one period (a day, or week, or month, etc.). A single candle can tell a story about the opinions of the real market participants during that period.
 
In addition to this, two or three (or more) consecutive candles can form a specific candle pattern and tell us even more of a story. However, there are lots of candle patterns, and each pattern has its own name.
 
So how can we go about learning and recognising these many patterns? How can we utilise just a small amount of knowledge about candle patterns to analyse many possible patterns on the price chart? In this session Robert explains a different approach to identifying and interpreting candle patterns.
 
This is a brand new presentation, based on bits and pieces from other presentations (including the Technical Analysis Introduction). It was  prepared especially for presentation to the ProTrader International Workshop in Kuala Lumpur in July 2022, and it was tweaked for the Melbourne ATAA webinar on 11 August 2022.
[ref-2022-08b]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
 
file size 1.5 MB
28 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
 
file size 4.3 MB
  84 slides on 42 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 5.7 MB
  84 slides on 84 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Index Constituents
 
August 2022

Does it surprise you to hear that the 200 stocks in our XJO* “Top 200” index are NOT literally the top 200 stocks in our market by market cap?
As at July 2022 they are actually selected from the top 349!

This is explained in this presentation, with the following topics covered:
  • What are the top 5 securities on our ASX market, and how big are they really? What is their current market capitalisation?
  • A brief look at Robert's master list of all stocks sorted by market cap.
  • Regarding the Top 20 index (XTL) of the top 20 stocks, are they actually the top 20 in the ASX?
  • What about the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) index? Are they the top 200 stocks on our market by market cap? If not, why not?
  • Does this matter to you as an investor or trader? How do you construct your Stock Universe? If you focus on the stocks in an index, then you could be missing out on many great opportunities.
[ref-2022-08a]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
 
file size 2 MB
  13 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
 
file size 6.8 MB
 36 slides on 18 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 5.2 MB
  39 slides on 39 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Stock Liquidity

July 2022
 
This updated version of an earlier presentation now comprises a more complete discussion about stock liquidity, or lack of liquidity. It includes discussion on these items:
  • When investing / trading in the share market, is stock liquidity important? Remembering that of 2,000+ stocks on the ASX, only about 500 of them are liquid enough for many traders to trade.
  • The issue of liquidity is important because if we want to sell a position quickly, we want to be confident that there are likely to be some buyers who are ready to take our holding.
  • How to define "liquidity"?
  • What metrics can we use to help us identify and measure liquidity? - Volume, Daily Trades, Daily Value.
This latest version of this presentation was prepared for presentation to the ProTrader International Workshop in Kuala Lumpur in July 2022. It is based on an earlier simple set of slides that was used to lead a group discussion on the topic of Stock Liquidity at the February 2020 BullCharts User Group meeting.

[ref-2022-07e]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 1.3 MB
  12 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 3.8 MB
  34 slides on 17 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 2.5 MB
  34 slides on 34 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Exit Strategies (updated)
July 2022

When investing in the markets, it is important to liquidate some market positions at the appropriate time, in order to protect our investment capital and profits. But there are many different approaches to doing this, and many possible methods.

This presentation provides an overview to the variety of different exit strategies that can be employed to protect our capital, including:

  • Why we should not be using the "percentage fall" method.
  • Time, clock, or calendar-based exits (based on time of day, or day of week);
  • Price target exits (eg. overhead resistance, measure rule);
  • Money-based exits based on the share price (eg. Stop Loss, Fibonacci extension);
  • Price chart features (eg. break of trend line; change of trend; Lowest Low; Count Back Line(CBL); Reversal patterns);
  • Technical Analysis chart indicator exits (eg. Moving Average, P-SAR, MA cross-over, ATR-based; Hull Range indicator; Berg Volatility Profit Taker).
Also see more information about Exit Strategies in the Toolbox.
 
This presentation has been updated more than twice since the original presentation in November 2015, with the most recent update for the ProTrader International Workshop in Kuala Lumpur in July 2022. It has been presented to a couple of groups in recent years, and used to help provoke some ideas for exit strategies to share around the table, and to consider for inclusion in the BullCharts User Group $100k Hypothetical Portfolio.
[ref-2022-07d]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 2 MB
19 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 3.9MB
52 slides on 26 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 3.8MB
52 slides on 52 pages

See the first page free

Dividend Harvesting - update
The Dangers of blind Dividend Harvesting
July 2022
 
In 2019 I did some research into the pros and cons of dividend harvesting over several months, and prepared an initial presentation (in November) with an update in January 2020 (see below). In the first few months of 2020 I put a revised dividend harvesting strategy into practise, using up to $10,000 of an available $100,000. This presentation includes lots of key details and strategy conclusions. This presentation was delivered online to an audience of about 50 ATAA members and guests, and was recorded.
 
After studying the pending dividend announcements every weekend for months in early 2020, I took four trades during the period from May 2020 to July, with the express purpose of capturing the dividend without capital loss. One trade was a good winner, and the other three trades all netted a good dividend amount, but lost capital - especially the trade where the stock had a special dividend and a stock consolidation with very little warning.
 
See all of the details in the free handout notes and the slides (for members only) at right. Note that due to a time restriction for the delivery of this presentation in the online session, several slides and some commentary had to be omitted. However, all of the slides are included in the handout and slide set at right.
 
This presentation is a tweaked version of the one from 2020, and was presented to the ProTrader International Workshop in Kuala Lumpur in July 2022.
 
[ref-2022-07c]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 1.5 MB
  20 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 3.2 MB
  56 slides on 28 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes


(coming soon)



In-depth look at Candlestick Patterns
July 2022

This presentation has been supplanted by a tweaked version only a few weeks later, for presentation to the ATAA Melbourne webinar on 11 August. See the newer version above.
[ref-2022-07b]
Free Handout

Members Slides

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes





Psychology and emotions of
investing and trading

July 2022

This session is an overview and introduction to this difficult topic relating to the psychology and emotions of investing, and introducing some strategies to overcome them. Introducing the following topics:
  • The brain - functions and deceptions
    (things are not as they seem).
  • Emotions - F, G and H.
  • Cognitive biases
  • Strategies to help combat these.
This session was presented to the ProTrader International Workshop in Kuala Lumpur in July 2022. It was originally presented to the Newcastle ATAA Chapter in July 2013, after earlier delivery to the BullCharts User Group June 2013) and Manningham U3A Stockmarket group in November 2012.
[ref-2022-07a]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.8 MB
24 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1.8 MB
  70 slides on 35 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 7 MB
69 slides on 69 pages

See the first page free

Exit Strategies

June 2022

This presentation to the ATAA Brisbane webinar was an updated version of the November 2015 presentation; but was tweaked again for presentation to the ProTrader International Convention in Kuala Lumpur in July 2022 (see the newer version above).
[ref-2022-06d]
Free Handout

Members Slides

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes




Effective Position Sizing

June 2022

This is a slightly tweaked version of the presentation from March 2014. 
 
When buying a parcel of shares, should we simply buy a round, say, $5000 or $10,000 worth? Should we consider buying a different sized parcel of shares each time? What are the considerations? Can we utilise sound risk management methods to minimise the risk? Can we in fact optimise the position size?
 
The material in this presentation has been compiled over a couple of months, with discussion at the BullCharts User Group meetings. The presentation talks about two position sizing methods: "Fixed Dollar Amount" per trade, and "Fixed Risk Amount" per trade. The latter is based on the so-called "Two Percent Rule".
 
Also see the web page on Optimising Position Sizing.
 
The presentation includes a case study comparison of these two position size approaches, with one of them being a clear winner over the alternative.
 
See the presentation slides at right for all the details. Note that the Premium Member's version includes additional explanatory comments.
[ref-2022-06c]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.6 MB
10 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1.6 MB
28 slides on 14 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 4.4 MB
  34 slides on 34 pages

See the first page free

How to preserve capital and minimise losses
or: How to sleep at night - with maximum profits
June 2022


This is a revised/tweaked version of the presentation I first presented in September 2011, and which covers two key topics:
  1. Blue chip stocks - they can be disappointing.
    Includes some samples of popular blue chip stocks that fell significantly during the GFC, and many of which are still below their historic highs (eg. Amcor, AMP, ANZ, CSL, Foster, Telstra, Westpac, Woolworths, Woodside). See more details about Disappointing Blue Chips.
  2. How to invest so we can sleep at night - with consideration of the "Amount to Risk" in each position size, and careful position size calculation - ie. best-practise money management. This includes key material on:
    • Setting some form of Stop Loss;
    • The amount of money "at risk", based on van Tharp's teachings about the "2 Percent Rule";
    • Calculating Position Size
[ref-2022-06b]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 3.5 MB
22 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 6.2 MB
66 slides on 33 pages

See the
first page(s) free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 8 MB
67 slides on 67 pages


Special insights into bullish observations on price charts,
to help us rank stocks
April 2022
 
Wouldn’t it be good if we could take a list of stocks (that might be your own stock universe), and sort the list with the strongest performing stocks at top of the list? That is, sort by the most bullish and have the most bearish at the bottom. And then invest in these stocks in anticipation of the best price performance.
 
BUT HOW to do this??

We could study bullish features of technical analysis chart indicators and allocate a ranking or score value and then sort the list.
 
[ref-2022-04]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 3.6 MB
39 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 10 MB
  116 slides on 58 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 9.3 MB
  116 slides on 116 pages

See the
first page(s) free

2021


How do most of us select stocks to trade/invest?
 
What is the best way to choose stocks for purchase? Should we exclusively use either technical analysis, or fundamental analysis? Or a mixture? Or should we focus on a preferred market sector? Or perhaps choose a company that has a “good story” and hope they deliver?

In early 2021 the BullCharts User Group members were playing a stock picking game, where each person was invited to nominate just one stock to hold in the game for a few weeks or months. Each member was invited to explain the details behind why they chose their stock. For a group of technical analysts the answers were very surprising, and might be indicative of why ATAA members, and in fact many retail traders/investors, invest/trade in the stocks that they do.

In this session Robert shares the many reasons for stock selection that are in use among our colleagues and peers – which surprisingly include the use of both technical analysis and fundamental analysis to varying degrees. The information presented might give ATAA members, and retail investors in general, some comfort with their own stock selection ideas and methods, so it will be a very useful session to attend.
 
[ref-2021-08]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 1.5 MB
  16 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 6 MB
  48 slides on 24 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 3.8 MB
  52 slides on 52 pages

See the
first page(s) free

2020


Annotating the price charts using BullCharts software
to record your copious analysis notes
 
How do you manage to record the details of your technical analysis of the price charts? Do you draw trend lines and make notes and various annotations directly on the price chart on your computer? Do you end up with too many annotations and a cluttered chart? What about studies in different time frames such as daily and weekly, and what about studies of both the short term and long term?  It can get rather messy and awkward.
 
In this session Robert demonstrates many of the chart tools in BullCharts (eg. lines, measure tools, etc. – see the next page for a list), and several ways to keep on top of the clutter, so as to easily group like with like and only show the related items.  This presentation is an advancement of Robert’s presentation from November 2014.
 
The Premium Members Speaker Notes will be available very soon.
 
[ref-2020-10]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 2 MB
  14 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 6 MB
  40 slides on 21 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes


(coming soon)



Dividend Harvesting - update
The Dangers of blind Dividend Harvesting
 
This presentation has been supplanted by a tweaked version for delivery to the ProTrader International Workshop in Kuala Lumpur in July 2022. See the newer version of this presentation above.
 
[ref-2020-07]
Free Handout


Members Slides




Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes





Technical Analysis - What is it? How can I profit?

(presentation slides and YouTube video)
 
A few years ago I prepared a 1-day seminar on this topic, comprising a 120-page handbook and many, many slides. This seminar ran publicly for small groups over a few years. I have now produced a summary set of slides, and added a voice-over to produce a 60-minute YouTube video. Click to watch the video on YouTube.
 TA - What is it? video
The 60-minute video might be a little long for those people who want to find out the basics in less than 10-minutes, so I have also produced a 6-minute movie. Watch the 6-minute video here.
 
You can download the slides at right, and you can watch both of the videos on YouTube.
 
The topics that are briefly covered:
  • Why is Technical Analysis so useful?
  • Share price chart basics.
  • Price chart patterns.
  • Weekly line charts.
  • Trends - uptrends and downtrends in the share price.
  • Support and Resistance levels on the price chart, and why they are so important.
  • Base consolidation patterns and break-outs from the same.
  • Bars (OHLC) and candles (white, black and how to remember the difference).
  • Candle patterns.
  • Moving Average chart indicator.
  • Average True Range (ATR) indicator.
  • Sensible risk and money management, including Stop Loss.
  • Quant analysis
  • Fibonacci, Elliott Wave, W.D.Gann.
  • Sample trading strategies (eg. break out, Moving Average cross)
  • Charting software - what to look for.
I do hope you find this material useful.
 
[ref-2020-04]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 2 MB
26 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 5 MB
  77 slides on 39 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes


(coming soon)



Trading Insights 1b - How Much Money?

presented to: ATAA March 2020
 
The Melbourne ATAA chapter has commenced presenting a series of presentation/workshop sessions entitled "Trading Insights".
 
This is the second session in the series and considers:
"How Much Money do I Need?"
 
Focusing on the majority of financial market investors/traders, we assume here that we will look at trend trading equity markets. This results in some assumptions for:
  • Minimum position size - is $500 enough?
  • Sensible risk management rules including:
    • Trade only liquid stocks (but what is a liquid stock?)
    • Maximum of 10 positions
    • Each position less than 10 per cent of capital.
But why these assumptions? See the presentation slides for the details.
 
[ref-2020-03-1b]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 0.3 MB
  8 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 0.3 MB
  24 slides on 12 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes


(coming soon)



Trading Insights 1a - What to Trade?

presented to: ATAA March 2020
 
The Melbourne ATAA chapter has commenced presenting a series of presentation/workshop sessions entitled "Trading Insights".
 
This is the first of several 20 minute sessions, to address the question: "What to Trade?" This addresses the concerns of newer investors and traders regarding the bewildering variety of instruments, asset classes and markets.
 
There are many possibilities which make it difficult for the newcomer. They can choose from the following, plus more:
  • Shares
  • FCDs
  • Currencies (forex)
  • Options
  • Futures
  • Commodities
But how to decide? See the slides for some good pointers.
 
[ref-2020-03-1a]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 0.5 MB
  21 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 0.5 MB
  63 slides on 32 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes


(coming soon)



Stock Liquidity

presented to: BCUG Feb 2020.
 
I prepared a simple set of slides to lead a group discussion on the topic of Stock Liquidity at the February 2020 BullCharts User Group meeting.
 
With a little enhancement this slide set is worth posting here for Toolbox Members and others. It includes some discussion about:
  • When investing / trading in the share market, is stock liquidity important? Remembering that of 2,000+ stocks on the ASX, only about 500 of them are liquid enough for many traders to trade.
  • The issue of liquidity is important because if we want to sell a position quickly, we want to be confident that there are likely to be some buyers who are ready to take our holding.
  • How to define "liquidity"?
  • What metrics can we use to help us identify and measure liquidity? - Volume, Daily Trades, Daily Value.
See the materials at right for more details.

[ref-2020-02b]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 1 MB
  9 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 1 MB
26 slides on 13 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 1 MB
  26 slides on 26 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Share Market Update - February 2020

presented to: U3A Manningham Feb 2020.
 
This session is simply a markets update, and touches on the following topics:
  • Have any stocks done well recently? Including share price charts for several stocks showing huge percentage increases over many months - great stocks to have been holding.
  • And how to spot these winners, focusing on:
  • Where has the market come from in recent months?
  • Did we have a Santa Rally recently?
  • To where is the market going in 2020?
  • How to protect capital and minimise losses.
The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals.

[ref-2020-02]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 2.4 MB
23 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 4 MB
  68 slides on 34 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 9 MB
  69 slides on 69 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Dividend Harvesting - January 2020

presented to: ATAA Melb (Jan 2020),
BullCharts User Group (Sept), U3A (Nov)
 
NOTE: This is an update to the same presentation a couple of months previously. Some of the slides have been revised.
 
Interested in investing in dividends? Is it easy? Is it straight forward? Are there any catches?

Isn't it easy to find a list of good dividend payers?, and then to buy-and-hold the stock for years? And to easily find the ex-dividend dates? And to simply follow the published dividend strategies?
 
You might be very surprised at the real answers to these questions.

In this session we:
  • Share some observations about dividends and share price performance — these might be surprising!
  • Explain some of the key details about dividends
  • Show some example share price charts
  • Refute the claims about simple dividend strategies
  • Explain how to find relevant details about dividends.
The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals.

[ref-2020-01]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 1.5 MB
24 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 3.4 MB
  72 slides on 36 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 3.3 MB
  75 slides on 75 pages

See the
first page(s) free

2019


Hands-on Technical Analysis
and chart reading

presented to: Melbourne ATAA group (Dec 2019)
 
The share market price charts summarise the opinions of the real market participants. Every chart tells a story and it pays to understand the stories in the price charts. (This is the basis of Technical Analysis.)
 
In this session in the ATAA Melbourne chapter meeting in December, we worked through the set of slides which includes some price charts of a particular stock (from a couple of months previously), and we talked about the stories in the price charts. We also looked at what some of the technical analysis indicators were telling us, and we drew a conclusion about whether we should have invested in this stock at the time. The final slides show the eventual share price performance and whether our hypothetical decision to invest was right or wrong.

The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals.

[ref-2019-12]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 1 MB
  14 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 1.7 MB
  40 slides on 20 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes


(available soon)


Dividend Harvesting - November 2019

presented to: BullCharts User Group (Sept), U3A (Nov)
 
NOTE: A more recent version of this presentation was delivered in January 2020 - see the item above.
 
Interested in investing in dividends? Is it easy? Is it straight forward? Are there any catches?

Isn't it easy to find a list of good dividend payers?, and then to buy-and-hold the stock for years? And to easily find the ex-dividend dates? And to simply follow the published dividend strategies?
 
You might be very surprised at the real answers to these questions.

In this session we:
  • Share some observations about dividends and share price performance — these might be surprising!
  • Explain some of the key details about dividends
  • Show some example share price charts
  • Refute the claims about simple dividend strategies
  • Explain how to find relevant details about dividends.
The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals.

[ref-2019-11]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 1.5 MB
25 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 3 MB
  73 slides on 37 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 3 MB
  73 slides on 73 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Searching for a strategy

presented to ATAA Melbourne - September 2019
 
When starting out in the business of share trading or investing, many people are confused by the huge range of possible analysis methods and strategies. Even with experience, some traders who use discretionary analysis methods manage to overlook some basic principles. So, let’s go “back-to-basics”.
 
Are you looking for trading ideas for your trading/investing strategy? Or how to go about it? Perhaps you are an advanced trader/investor and overlooking something? So looking for clues to tweak your strategies?
 
These topics are addressed in this presentation, and the slides are designed to be used in a group discussion session so as to share experiences, but they contain enough information to be useful as they are.
 
The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals.

[ref-2019-09]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 1 MB
  14 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 2 MB
 42 slides on 21 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 2 MB
  42 slides on 42 pages

See the
first page(s) free


Share Market 101 (aka Boot Camp)

U3A Nunawading Summer School - January 2019
 
A two hour crash course overview of the share market — what it is, how it works, who to believe, and the pitfalls to watch out for.
 
This presentation is a 2-hour version of the original 6-hour Share Market Boot Camp, especially prepared for the U3A Nunawading Summer School in January 2019.

The session covers the following topics:
  • Share market introduction
  • Buying and selling shares
  • Share price analysis - Fundamental or Technical? or both?
  • Share trading - brief overview.
The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals.

[ref-2019-01a]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 4.5 MB
  52pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 3.7 MB
155 slides on 78 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 5.4 MB
  155 slides on 155 pages

See the first page free

Price Charts - Unlocking the Secrets
(aka Technical Analysis)
U3A Nunawading Summer School - January 2019
 
Share market price charts summarise the underlying opinions and emotions of the real market participants. Every price chart tells a story, and it pays to understand the stories in the price charts.  Why does the share price of a particular stock rise to a particular level, and then sell off, only to fall for a while and then start to rally again?  This 2-hour session provides an introduction to the topic of how to “read the stories” in the price charts — the subject of Technical Analysis.
 
This presentation is a 2-hour version of the original 6-hour seminar, especially prepared for the U3A Nunawading Summer School in January 2019.

The session covers the following topics:
  • Technical analysis overview and usefulness
  • Price charts:
    • Line charts versus candle charts
    • Support and resistance
    • Periods - daily, weekly, monthly
  • Trends - up and down (and none)
  • Simple indicators (eg. Moving Average, Momentum, MACD)
  • Volume is important
  • Chart patterns (eg. Triangles, Tops, Head and Shoulders)
  • Candlestick patterns
  • How to implement and use Technical Analysis
  • Next steps and tips
The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals.

[ref-2019-01b]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 2.8 MB
30 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 3.6 MB
90 slides on 45 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 7.7 MB
  90 slides on 90 pages

See the first page free

Trend Trading ASX Shares

U3A Nunawading Summer School - January 2019
 
Many investors in the share market are what we call “trend traders”.  How much money should you invest in any one company?  How long should you hold it for?  This 2-hour session explains how to “trend trade” the ASX shares, and the pitfalls to be aware of, and how to manage the risks.

This presentation is a 2-hour version of the fairly new 1-hour session that was prepared in 2018 for the Australian Shareholders Association. This version was especially prepared for the U3A Nunawading Summer School in January 2019.

The session covers the following topics:
  • Trend trading - what is it? and why do it?
  • How to find trending shares:
    • Higher peaks and troughs
    • Moving Average chart indicator
    • MACD chart indicator
  • Exit strategies to protect capital (eg. Stop Loss, etc.)
  • Watch out for stock liquidity (or lack of it)
  • Risk and money management
    • Position size is important
    • Exit strategies
  • Remember the emotions - cognitive biases and trading psychology.
See a more detailed Session Synopsis here. The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals.

[ref-2019-01c]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 2.6 MB
28 pages
(revised 17 Jan 2019)
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 4.4 MB
86 slides on 43 pages
 
Latest version is 3.2
Revised 17 Jan 2019.

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).

file size 5.8 MB
  86 slides on 86 pages

See the first page free

2018


Trading in Practise

October 2018
 
This set of slides (updated from the earlier presentations in 2016) has been used to lead and facilitate a hands-on workshop discussion, utilising the Trading Worksheet handout document. The slides and "Speaker Notes" can be used as a self-study Case Study example, demonstrating the steps and decisions in position sizing, and managing risk.

The session covers the following topics:
  • Trade planning - using a Trading Work Sheet.
  • Specifying portfolio and risk management metrics.
  • Choosing a Stop Loss, and recording it.
  • Looking for a Target Price, and hence determining the
    Reward to Risk ratio (the inverse of the Risk-Reward Ratio)
  • Calculating Optimum Position Size, using the "2 Percent Rule".
  • Setting Trailing Stops.
This session has now been presented in several forums including: ATAA Melbourne (Jan 2016), BullCharts User Group (2012), ATAA (2015, 2016), and VectorVest Melb User Group (2016).

The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals.

[ref-2018-10]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 1.2MB
26 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 3MB
76 slides on 38 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).
file size 3MB
76 slides on 76 pages

See the first page free

Trading and Technical Analysis

August 2018
 
Are you thinking about actively trading or investing in the Australian share market? Whether it’s for short term trading (such as day trading), or longer term trading, or even investing, this presentation addresses many of the questions that come to mind. What type of person can do this? How much time does it take? Do I really need to prepare a strategy or system? How much money do I need to start with? How many shares to buy? Can I make money doing this?

This presentation will be presented to the Australian Shareholders Association (ASA) Seminar day, "Share strategies to suit your investing style", in Melbourne on 24 August 2018. The Free Handout and Members Slides documents are now available (at right). The Speaker Notes will be completed and available at right very soon.
 
The topics to be addressed in this 50 minute presentation include:
  • Technical Analysis - why is it useful?
  • What type of person do you need to be to spend your day trading? And what are the alternatives?
  • How much time does it take? - Perhaps the "journey" is most important?
  • Real systems and strategies.- an introduction
  • Your system - entries, exits and back-testing.
  • Do traders really make money?
  • Risk and money management
  • What resources do we need? - brokers, websites, software
  • How much money do we need?
  • How many shares should we buy?
  • Next steps
  • Some useful TIPS!

[ref-2018-08]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 3MB
34 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 3MB
102 slides on 51 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).
file size 8MB
102 slides on 102 pages

See the first page free

TradeSim for back-testing - INTRODUCTION

June 2018
(a revised version of the October 2016 presentation)
 
TradeSim is a software tool that is available as a plug-in for the BullCharts charting software system (and for MetaStock).
 
This presentation was originally prepared for the Australian BullCharts User Group meeting in October 2016, and revised for the June 2018 meetings. It provides an overview of TradeSim and how it works.


Also see the Case Study example below.
 
 
 

[ref-2018-06]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 200 kB
8 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 0.5MB
24 slides on 12 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).
file size 0.7MB
24 slides on 24 pages

See the first page free

Trend Trading ASX Shares

May 2018
 
There are many different ways to select the stocks in which to invest (or to trade). So how to decide which approach to use? It seems as though many people use a Trend Trading strategy, without even realising it. So this presentation explains some of the finer things to be aware of when Trend Trading so that anyone without a concrete strategy can study the details and understand what is involved. [NOTE: We do NOT recommend trading in the markets without first consulting a suitably qualified and trustworthy professional.]
 
In this presentation we:
  • Explain the Trend Trading approach.
  • Describe a share price trend (and relevance to Dow Theory).
  • Explain how to find the shares with an uptrending share price, using the option of a rising Moving Average of share price.
  • Discuss the importance of protecting investment capital
    with an effective Exit Strategy (eg. Stop Loss, Parabolixc SAR, volatility charts indicators based perhaps on ATR, Alan Hull's Range indicator and Jim Berg's Volatility Profit Taker indicator).
  • Briefly discuss Stan Weinstein's approach, utilising a 30 week Moving Average on weekly price charts.
  • Point out that candlestick patterns are useful.
  • Discuss share liquidity, and its' importance.
  • Explain that Risk and Money Management are extremely important in order to protect our investment capital (eg. the "2 Percent Rule", portfolio heat).
  • Point out the importance of doing some form of back-testing and or paper trading in order to gain confidence with the approach.
This presentation will be tweaked and presented to the ASA August seminar in Melbourne.

[ref-2018-05]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 2.2 MB
24 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
 
file size 3.3 MB
68 slides on 34 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).
 
file size 5MB
70 slides on 70 pages

See the first page free

Ranking stocks using bullish chart indicator features

Revised - January 2018
 
Wouldn’t it be good if we could take a list of stocks (ie. your "stocks universe"), and sort the list with the strongest performing stocks (ie. the most bullish) at top of the list? And then invest in these stocks in anticipation of the best price performance? 
 
In this presentation we:
  • Explain the notion of "bullish observations" of some technical analysis chart indicators -- such as "Moving Average rising and below the share price" (a la Stan Weinstein's ideas in his book).
  • Provide a list of chart indicators to which this applies.
  • Consider how to quantify the bullish observations to produce a ranking or score.
  • Consider how to automate this (eg. using BullCharts charting software).
This presentation was previously presented to other groups - see the next item below for details.

[ref-2018-01]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 2.7 MB
28 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 7 MB
84 slides on 42 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).
file size 7MB
86 slides on 86 pages

See the first page free

2017


Ranking stocks using bullish chart indicator features

November 2017
 
NOTE: This presentation was updated and delivered to the Melbourne ATAA meeting in January 2018 - see the next item above for the latest version.
 
Wouldn’t it be good if we could take a list of stocks (ie. your "stocks universe"), and sort the list with the strongest performing stocks (ie. the most bullish) at top of the list? And then invest in these stocks in anticipation of the best price performance? 
 
This presentation was presented to the BullCharts User Group (both the Melbourne meeting and the online webinar), as well as the U3A Manningham group (Financial Health in Retirement). It has also been presented to the Canberra Chapter of the ATAA.

[ref-2017-11]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 2.6 MB
27 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 7 MB
68 slides on 41 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).
file size 7MB
83 slides on 83 pages

See the first page free

The Perils of Long Term (buy-and-hold) Investing

February 2017
 
Long-term buy-and-hold investing was quite acceptable and rewarding until the GFC hit in 2008, in which many investors lost a lot of money after following profressional advice. Even today there are dangers in following a buy-and-hold approach.
 
In this presentation we share a number of examples of high profile stocks, and blue chip stocks, which have suffered from significant share price falls. And we show some of the ways to help guard against these risks.
 
 



[ref-2017-02]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.5 MB
23 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 3.5MB
68 slides on 34 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).
file size 4MB
68 slides on 68 pages

See the first page free

2016


TradeSim for back-testing - CASE STUDY

October 2016
 
TradeSim is a software tool that is available as a plug-in for the BullCharts charting software system (and for MetaStock).
 
This presentation was prepared for the Australian BullCharts User Group meeting in October 2016. It walks through a case study example of using TradeSim to test a Moving Average Cross-Over strategy (with no guarantees of success).
 
 
 
 


[ref-2016-10-2]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 200 kB
11 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1MB
31 slides on 16 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).
file size 0.7MB
31 slides on 31 pages

See the first page free

TradeSim for back-testing - INTRODUCTION

October 2016
 
This presentation slide set now replaced
by the updated version in June 2018 above.





 
 
 
 

[ref-2016-10-1]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 200 kB
8 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 0.5MB
24 slides on 12 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).
file size 0.7MB
24 slides on 24 pages

See the first page free

Medium Term Investing in Today's Awkward Markets

June 2016
 
This presentation was delivered to the Manningham U3A (the Thursday "Financial Health in Retirement" group formerly known as the Stockmarket group) on Thursday 16 June 2016.
 
The objectives behind this presentation and set of slides is to help regular investors understand the following:
  • Since the onset of the GFC (2008) the old long-term buy-and-hold strategy for sharemarket investing has not worked very well.
  • The old days of investing in stocks with a good dividend yield, and just sitting back to reap the dividend, are no longer safe. The share price of some stocks can depreciate as much as 80 percent or more, which makes the dividend a tiny compensation for the loss of capital value.
  • There are ways to invest in the equity markets, even when the market seems to be difficult or awkward.
  • Even when the major so-called blue chip stocks are not performing, there are usually some stocks that are performing - the catch is to be able to find them.
  • Several slides in this presentation explain how to use a couple of simple technical analysis chart indicators to spot rising stocks, and to have a degree of confidence that the rising share price is likely to continue.
  
[ref-2016-06]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.5 MB
22 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 2.8MB
65 slides on 33 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).
file size 3.6MB
65 slides on 65 pages

See the first page free

Chart Patterns

May 2016
 
This set of slides was used in the May 2016 BullCharts User Group to lead through a discussion of technical analysis chart patterns. The session (and updated slides) covered the following topics:
  • Are chart patterns useful? Do they help to anticipate a possible price move? Can they be used to estimate the likely range of a potential price move?
  • How can we spot them? What steps can we follow?
  • Time periods (daily, weekly, monthly)?
  • Reversal versus continuation patterns.
  • Volume is important?
The chart patterns that are mentioned include:
  • Basing and consolidation, patterns
  • Rectangle patterns
  • Triangle patterns (Ascending, Descending, Symmetric)
  • Double top/bottom, 
  • Channels (ascending, descending, sideways)
  • Head and shoulders, 
  • Wedges, flags, and pennants, 
  • Rounding tops/bottoms,
  • Cup and handle
The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals.
 
[ref-2016-05]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 0.6MB
9 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1.5MB
26 slides on 13 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members (will open in a new window).
file size 1.5MB
29 slides on 29 pages

See the first page free

Trading in Practise

January and April 2016
 
This set of slides has been used to lead and facilitate a hands-on workshop discussion, utilising the Trading Worksheet handout document. The session covers the following topics:
  • Trade planning - using a Trading Work Sheet.
  • Specifying portfolio and risk management metrics.
  • Choosing a Stop Loss, and recording it.
  • Looking for a Target Price.
  • Calculating Position Size, using the "2 Percent Rule".
  • Setting Trailing Stops.
This session has been presented in several forums including: BullCharts User Group (2012), ATAA (2015, 2016), and VectorVest Melb User Group (2016). This slide set presentation is a workshop, and a further revision to the session from July 2015 (and the session from 2012). 

The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals.
 
[ref-2016-01, 2016-04]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 0.6MB
20 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1.6MB
60 slides on 30 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 1.2MB
60 slides on 60 pages

See the first page free

2015


Exit Strategies

November 2015

This presentation has been supplanted by a couple of updated versions. The latest one in July 2022 - see that version here above.

[ref-2015-11]
Free Handout

Members Slides




Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes




Nimble Short Term Investing
presented to the AIA Conference - August 2015

This presentation was presented to the AIA National Conference on the Gold Coast on 5th August 2015, and is a revised and tweaked version of the one of the same name presented earlier (below). (The handout at right is very similar to the one on the printed notes at the conference; but correctly shows all graphic images, including the two tables of results on page 20.) 

Given the current investing climate (since the GFC), it seems necessary to revise the conventional investing approach and methods. This presentation identifies some of the shortfalls of the traditional investing methods, and discusses the Nimble Short Term Investing approach. Also see the supporting web page.

This approach refers to a particular investing style that is applicable to investing in the equity market (the share market), and which adopts specific and clear views and interpretations. Some of it's underlying principles clearly challenge the conventional wisdom.  

The material in this presentation is presented under the following headings:
  • Investing objectives
  • Time frame and horizon
  • Underlying principles (a total of 10)
  • Investing psychology
  • Stock, sector and market analysis
  • Stock selection strategies (and details)
  • Money management
  • Risk management
[ref-2015-08]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.7MB
23 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 2.2MB
68 slides on 34 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 3.5MB
65 slides on 65 pages

See the first page free

Trading in Practise

July 2015

This slide set presentation is a workshop, and a revision of the session from 2012. It was presented to the ATAA Melbourne chapter at their July 2015 meeting. It uses the Trading Worksheet handout document.

This set of slides can be used to lead and facilitate a workshop discussion. The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals, covering the following topics:
  • Trade planning - using a Trading Work Sheet.
  • Specifying portfolio and risk management metrics.
  • Choosing a Stop Loss, and recording it.
  • Looking for a Target Price.
  • Calculating Position Size, using the "2 Percent Rule".
  • Setting Trailing Stops.

[ref-2015-07]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
25 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 2.4MB
74 slides on 37 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 1.6MB
74 slides on 74 pages

See the first page free

Nimble Short Term Investing
and Today's Stock Picks

for the AIA - February 2015

This is an updated version of the similarly named presentation delivered in November 2014 to a small private traders' group. It was delivered to the Melbourne AIA (Australian Investors Association) on 10 February 2015.

Given the current investing climate (since the GFC), it seems necessary to revise the conventional investing approach and methods. This presentation identifies some of the shortfalls of the traditional investing methods, and discusses the Nimble Short Term Investing approach. Also see the supporting web page.

This approach refers to a particular investing style that is applicable to investing in the equity market (the share market), and which adopts specific and clear views and interpretations. Some of it's underlying principles clearly challenge the conventional wisdom.

The material in this presentation is presented under the following headings:
  • Investing objectives
  • Time frame and horizon
  • Underlying principles (a total of 10)
  • Investing psychology
  • Stock, sector and market analysis
  • Stock selection strategies (and details)
  • Money management
  • Risk management
[ref-2015-02]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.7MB
26 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 3.4MB
79 slides on 39 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 4MB
79 slides on 79 pages

See the first page free

2014


Analysing and annotating the price charts

November 2014

*** Please note: A newer updated version of this presentation was delivered in October 2020 and is available above.

When looking for stocks in which to invest, we might study the price chart and want to record our analysis and observations, and then re-visit the notes at a later time. But, what sort of observations are we talking about? and what are the options for recording them?

This presentation describes a couple of analysis situations, with examples, and demonstrates a couple of ways to do this in the BullCharts charting software (including the use of the IntelliCharts feature). There is also a 20 minute video recording of this presentation that better shows the demonstration.

[ref-2014-11-2]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
11 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1.4MB
32 slides on 16 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes



(available soon)



Nimble Short Term Investing

November 2014

When it comes to investing strategies, there are literally thousands of possibilities, and many of them are “right”. This presentation describes just one possible approach - the Nimble Short Term Investing approach. Also see the supporting web page.

The term “Nimble Short Term Investing” refers to a particular investing style that is applicable to investing in the equity market (the share market). This investing approach adopts specific views and interpretations. Some of it's underlying principles challenge conventional wisdom.

The material in this presentation is presented under the following headings:
  • Investing objectives
  • Time frame and horizon
  • Underlying principles (a total of 10)
  • Investing psychology
  • Stock, sector and market analysis
  • Stock selection strategies (and details)
  • Money management
  • Risk management
More details will be available in the "Speaker Notes" to be available shortly.
[ref-2014-11]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
9 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 0.5MB
28 slides on 14 pages

See the first page free

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes



Now obsolete - see the more recent presentation above (Feb 2015).



Exit Strategies

October 2014

This presentation has been supplanted by a couple of updated versions. The latest one in July 2022 - see that version here above.

[ref-2014-10]
Free Handout

Members Slides




Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes




What would you do? - How good is your investing judgement?
September and October 2014

This short presentation to the Templestowe Valley Probus group was delivered as a hands-on, participative case study-come-quiz, with lots of interaction and discussion. (It was delivered along with the "Investing Tips" presentation below.) It was also delivered to the Manningham U3A Stockmarket group on 16 October 2014 (with some minor updates to some words on some slides).

These slides show a sample price chart and ask the question: "What would you do here? Would you buy this stock?". In real life the actual situation might have been your stock broker telling you that the shares are cheap, and they should be snapped up (but the broker won't tell you that the shares could get even cheaper).

Test out your own investing judgement, and study the price charts in these slides. See if you would be profitable, or loss-making.


[ref-2014-09-1]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 600kB
9 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 2MB
25 slides on 13 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 1.8MB
30 slides on 30 pages

See the first page free

Investing Tips and Share Market Success Secrets
September 2014

This presentation to the Templestowe Valley Probus group was an interactive discussion, based on an earlier version of the presentation to the U3A group in 2013. This presentation focuses on two specific topics:

There are several related topics that couldn't be included in this presentation due to the time needed to cover the topic. See a list of them on the Toolbox Share Market page. For more information on Success Secrets, refer to the earlier presentation below Sharemarket 101 - Avoiding the pitfalls....

Note that the original "Members Slides" posted here have been updated - see the small revision numbering the bottom right corner of the first slide - the latest version is "Revision 2b".


[ref-2014-09-2]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.4MB
21 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1.5MB
54 slides on 27 pages
"Revision 2b"

See the first page free
 
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 2.8MB
54 slides on 54 pages

See the first page free

2014 - Technical Analysis - What is it, really?

August 2014

Technical Analysis - A lot of people talk about it; but what does it really mean? What is "technical analysis"? And how can I make money from it?

This set of slides is in use by the ATAA at various expos, and meetings, as an introduction to the subject of Technical Analysis for newbies. It provides a quick overview of all the topics that comprise the bigger subject of technical analysis, and is a cut down version of Robert's 6-hour seminar.

For more information about technical analysis, see the 
special Toolbox web page.


[ref-2014-08-1]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
22 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 3.5MB
64 slides on 32 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 2.7MB
64 slides on 64 pages

See the first page free

2014 - How to rank stocks (and sectors) by performance

June 2014

We have a list of stocks in which we could invest. But we can't invest in all of them at this time (eg. not enough funds). So, how to choose which one(s)? How can we “rank” them? Perhaps in order of performance, so that we are buying into the better performing stocks.

This presentation explains the dilemma, shows some price charts of performing stocks, and explores the possibility of using both a Moving Average indicator to quantify stock performance, and the ROAR indicator. The next updated version will also explore how to easily identify strong sectors.

This was presented to the June BullCharts User Group meeting, and the 19th June U3A Stockmarket Group meeting. It will be updated with more detail, and presented to the July ATAA meeting in Melbourne after which these slides will be updated, and the Premium Member version (slides + speaker notes) will be published here. 

[ref-2014-04]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
17 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 2.3MB
50 slides on 25 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 3.5MB
64 slides on 64 pages

See the first page free

2014 - Effective Position Sizing

March 2014

This presentation has now been supplanted by a slightly tweaked version in June 2022 - see the newer version here.
[ref-2014-03-02]
Free Handout


Members Slides


Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes




2014 - The Trader's Journey

March 2014

I was invited to present to a small group of private traders in South Yarra, so I put together some key points together related to the typical trader's journey - the progression of learning through various stages:
  • Interest in investing in the markets.
  • Buy a small share parcel (wrong!)
  • Read the news and subscribe to many newsletters.
  • Education - seek to learn more, and more and more...
  • Realise that sum aspects of fundamental analysis are not as reliable as useful as we would hope (and "intrinsic value").
  • Discover that the price charts have stories to tell (technical analysis).
  • Realise the truth about price trends (up trend, down trend).
  • Discover sensible risk and money management techniques.
  • Encounter many different strategies.
  • Offered many other instruments (CFDs, forex, etc.), and bombarded with useless information.
  • Finally pulling it all together.
See the presentation slides at right for all the details. Note that the Premium Member's version includes additional explanatory comments.
[ref-2014-03-01]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.2MB
20 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 2.6MB
60 slides on 30 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 2.8MB
60 slides on 60 pages

See the first page free

2014 - Market Outlook

16 January 2014

At about this time every year, a number of commentators, economists and analysts come out with their share market forecast for the year ahead.
 
This presentation contains this technical analyst's view of the year ahead - well, in fact, not for the year ahead but for the month's ahead. And beware of the share market bears.
 
See the presentation slides at right for all the details.
[ref-2014-01-mo]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.3MB
20 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 3.5MB
58 slides on 29 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 3.5MB
60 slides on 60 pages

See the first page free

Santa Rally - Fact or Fiction? - The Real Truth

16 January 2014

Every year around Christmas time there is a lot of discussion about the so-called Santa Rally; but is it really true or is it mere fantasy?
 
This short presentation explores this question, and explains two accepted definitions for the term, along with the performance of the Australian market in the last few years.
 
Another question worth pondering is: "is the Santa Rally at all helpful for regular investors?" See the presentation slides for the answer. Also see the Santa Rally web page.
[ref-2014-01-sr]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 0.5MB
7 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1MB
20 slides on 10 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 1MB
20 slides on 20 pages

See the first page free

2013


Exit Strategies

November 2013

This presentation has been supplanted by a couple of updated versions. The latest one in July 2022 - see that version here above.

[ref-2013-11]
Free Handout

Members Slides




Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes






Where's the Market Going?
Markets analysis using "4 Windows" approach
October 2013

This presentation focuses on studying the performance of the Australian market (the All Ordinaries index - XAO) using contemporary technical analysis tools, and Robert's "4-Windows" analysis approach. Topics covered include the following (some of which are the application of Technical Analysis to current charts):
  • The market is like an elephant.Big picture is important, so zoom out because
    the market is like an elephant.
  • Trend lines, Support, Resistance (including the Fat Pencil concept)
  • Chart Patterns
  • Candlestick patterns
  • Stan Weinstein's view - 30 week MA on a weekly chart
  • Chart indicators - Coppock, Momentum, GMMA, Twiggs Money Flow.
  • Volume is important.
[ref-2013-10]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.9MB
29 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 5.4MB
85 slides on 43 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes


(pending)

file size:
80 slides 


In a falling market (eg. a bear), should we
keep stocks for the dividends? or sell?
(to avoid the impacts of a bear market!)
REVISED - 30 August 2013


This presentation is a revision and update of an earlier presentation that discussed the impacts of a bear market. The GFC that started in early 2008 is now a few years behind us. So it is useful to update the earlier figures that address the question:- "Should I hold my stocks for the dividends? or strategically sell?" Key topics include:
  1. Introduction:
    • The GFC of 2008 - what actually happened?
    • How badly can a bear market treat us?
  2. The hypothetical $100,000 portfolio:
    • Which ten stocks?
    • What's the portfolio value after 3 years?
    • What's the portfolio value after 6 years?
    • How did the dividend payments fare? Win or lose?
This presentation (delivered to U3A Manningham) is based on earlier versions of the "Impacts of a Bear Market" presentation in July 2011 (see below), and  the Newcastle ATAA chapter version on 13 July 2013.
[ref-2013-08]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.8MB
30 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 3.6MB
88 slides on 44 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes


(pending)

file size:
80 slides 


Aussie Market Update
utilising the "4 Windows" approach
July 2013

A current analysis of the Australian share market studying the All Ordinaries (XAO) index, and utilising the “4 Windows” analysis approach. The analysis includes the use of:
  • Plain price chart, looking for support/resistance, chart patterns, and at big picture.
  • Personally preferred "studies", including Weinstein's 30week MA, Coppock indicator, and candlestick patterns.
  • Personally preferred chart indicators: Momentum, Twiggs Money Flow.
  • Studying volume (because it is important).
Presented to the Brighton StockDoctor group, and is an update of the presentation to the Melbourne ATAA chapter January 2013 meeting.

[ref-2013-07-4w]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.6MB
25 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 7MB
75 slides on 38 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 4.3MB
75 slides on 75 pages

See the first page free

The impacts of a bear market
(or "How bad can a bear market treat us?")
REVISED - July 2013


This presentation is a major update to the one from July 2011 (see below), and presented to the Newcastle ATAA chapter on 13 July 2013. The key features:
  1. The GFC of 2008 - what actually happened?
  2. How badly can a bear market treat us?
  3. What damage did the bear do to a typical $100,000 portfolio? What was it's value 3 years later, and then 6 years later (in June 2013)?
  4. What is best? 
  • Hold on for the ride? Or
  • Selectively sell stocks at strategic points to lock in profits?
See the answers in the slides (with discussion in the Premium Member Speaker Notes).
[ref-2013-07a]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 2MB
30 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 3.4MB
90 slides on 45 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 4.7MB
90 slides on 90 pages

See the first page free

How to avoid the next GFC & bear market (coming soon)

REVISED - July 2013

This presentation is a major update to the one from July 2011 (see below), and presented to the Newcastle ATAA chapter on 13 July 2013. The key features:
  1. Stan Weinstein's 30-week MA strategy for market awareness and bear avoidance, including how well it foretold the Australian 2008 GFC bear market.
  2. Some technical chart indicators and "divergence", including: Momentum, RSI, and the usefulness of the Wilson ATR Trailing Stop indicator.
  3. Charting software to help spot bear markets.
See the details in the slides (with discussion and charts in the Premium Member Speakers Notes).

[ref-2013-07b]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.6MB
24 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 2½MB
70 slides on 35 pages

See the first page free
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 4MB
70 slides on 70 pages

See the first page free


Psychology and emotions of
investing and trading

July 2013

This presentation has been supplanted by an updated version in July 2022. See the newer presentation here above.
Presented to the Newcastle ATAA Chapter in July 2013, after earlier delivery to the BullCharts User Group June 2013) and Manningham U3A Stockmarket group in November 2012.

[ref-2013-07c] [ref-2012-08-r4]
Free Handout

Members Slides

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes




Investing Tips and Success Secrets
May 2013

Please note:- This presentation has been updated with a more recent version of the same name listed above.

This presentation to the U3A Manningham (Stockmarket group) in May 2013 was an interactive discussion on two related topics, with reference to two recently new web pages:



[ref-2013-05]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
16 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1.2MB
48 slides on 24 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 2.5MB
47 slides on 47 pages

Sharemarket 101
Avoiding the pitfalls
to make good profits
February 2013

A 1-hour free presentation at the Box Hill (Whitehorse Manningham) Library 26 February 2013. This session was video recorded (courtesy of Gavin Ash) - see the video in YouTube. There was also a 2-page handout document.

Note: The Slides download at right (for Toolbox Members) includes many more slides (price charts) than were delivered within the one hour presentation.

The topics covered include:
  • Common pitfalls that beset share market investors and traders.
  • Watch out for the furphies (fibs) that get peddled - such as "it is time in the market that is important, because you can't time the market". We know that this axiom is totally false (absolute rubbish).
  • Share Market Success Secrets, and other market tips....
See the video on See the video on YouTube

See the promo flyer here...

[ref-2013-02]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.2MB
20 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 3.8MB
92 slides on 46 pages

See the first page free

NOTE:
This version includes many more slides
than were delivered
in the presentation.
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 4.3MB
94 slides on 94 pages

See the first page free

Aussie Markets Update
utilising the
"4 Windows" approach
January 2013

A current analysis of the Australian share market studying the All Ordinaries (XAO) index, and utilising the “4 Windows” analysis approach.

Presented to the Melbourne ATAA chapter January 2013 meeting.



[ref-2013-01]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
16 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size .21MB
46 slides on 23 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 2.8MB
49 slides on 49 pages

2012


Psychology and emotions of
investing and trading

November 2012

Presented to the Manningham U3A Stockmarket group in November 2012, this is an overview and introduction to this difficult topic relating to the psychology and emotions of investing, and introducing some strategies to overcome them.

Introducing the following topics:
  • The brain - functions and deceptions
    (things are not as they seem).
  • Emotions - F, G and H.
  • Cognitive biases
  • Strategies to help combat these.
[ref-2012-08]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.5MB
23 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1MB
68 slides on 34 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 3MB
68 slides on 68 pages

Follow My Trade - This is Trading in Practise

July 2012

This slide set presentation is a workshop, and is a further update and overhaul of the earlier versions below using the Trading Worksheet handout document.

This set of slides can be used to lead and facilitate a workshop discussion. The "Slides + Speaker Notes" version (for Premium Toolbox members) can be used as a self-study by individuals, covering the following topics:
  • Trade planning - using a Work Sheet.
  • Specifying portfolio and risk management metrics.
  • Choosing a Stop Loss, and recording it.
  • Looking for a Target Price.
  • Calculating Position Size, using the "2% Rule".
  • Setting Trailing Stops.
The slides available here are an updated version of those actually presented in the session, incorporating some useful feedback from the session participants.

[ref-2012-07]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.5MB
22 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 4.6MB
64 slides on 32 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 2.8MB
64 slides on 64 pages

"Reviewing Key Mum and Dad Stocks"
June 2012
Robert prepared some material for publication in the June 2012 monthly edition of the ASX Investor Update newsletter (even if the resulting article headline was a little misleading).

The article is a Technical Analysis review of four key "Mum and Dad" stocks - Commonwealth Bank (CBA), Woolworths (WOW), Telstra (TLS) and Qantas (QAN).

And the article is a realistic case study discussion that demonstrates the key topics: trends, Stop Loss, support and resistance, the semi-log chart, and the 30-week SMA (as per Weinstein).

As usual, the "Slides+Speaker Notes" (for Premium Members) at right include extra notes to help with understanding the short-hand comments on the slides themselves.

[ref-2012-06]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 0.7MB
11 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1.8MB
32 slides on 16 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 1.6MB
32 slides on 32 pages

Trading in Practise

May 2012

This slide set presentation is a workshop, and is an updated version of a similar one from late 2010. This one was presented to the BullCharts User Group in May 2012, with the Trading Worksheet handout document.

This workshop will be revised and presented at the Melbourne ATAA meeting in July 2012.

[ref-2012-03]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 0.5MB
9 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 2MB
54 slides on 27 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes


(pending)

10
Key Lessons from the Financial Crisis
Revision 7 - May 2012

This presentation is an updated and totally revised and refreshed version of earlier material on this topic. It was presented to the Manningham U3A Stockmarket group on Thursday 10 May 2012. This updated material is quite lengthy (you can tell from the page counts shown at right), and it really needs a session of about 2 hours to present properly, and I tried to squeeze it into only an hour and a quarter (a bit tight).

The Handout download and Slides docs are now available at right, and the Speaker Notes will be available soon.

See more information on this topic on the web here (currently being updated), and the earlier "Beware the Bears..." presentation material below.

The ten key lessons from the GFC are then espoused in some detail. This includes some sample cycles (eg. investment clock, decennial cycle, and property and Presidential cycles).

[ref-2012-02]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 3MB
47 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 5MB
146 slides on 73 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes


(pending)

"Useful Tips for Managing Risk — Extra Detail"
February 2012

This is an updated and expanded version of the earlier presentation below. This version includes more detail about the low market cap companies, and the high risk (high debt) stocks. It also includes the newer screen shots from the CommSec web site showing how to search for stocks that meet specific fundamental analysis criteria (eg. high ROE, low Debt/Equity, and low PEG ratio).


[ref-2012-04]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.3MB
31 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1.7MB
92 slides on 46 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 2.5MB
93 slides on 93 pages

"Useful Tips for Managing Risk — A Different View"
January 2012

Take an unfair advantage with a check list of 30 ways to increase your success in the markets. Risk and money management is not discussed much, because many people see it as too hard and too complex; but in this session, Robert lists a number of simple ways that you can increase your chances of success, and studies four of these in detail. This includes consideration of two key Fundamental Analysis criteria as well as very useful Technical Analysis considerations.




[ref-2012-01]
Free Handout


Replaced by
the updated
February version
above.
Members Slides


Replaced by
the updated
February version
above.

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes


Replaced by
the updated
February version
above.

2011


How to preserve capital and minimise losses
(or How to sleep at night - with maximum profits)
September 2011


This presentation has now been supplanted by a newer, tweaked version in June 2022 - see the new version here.

[ref-2011-09]
Free Handout

Members Slides

Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes




The impacts of a bear market
(or "How bad can a bear market treat us?")
July 2011


NOTE: This presentation is updated July 2013 above.

This presentation is now the latest version with updated charts of the first half (ie. Part 1) of the earlier "Anti-decimation..." presentation. The key features in this version are:
  1. The GFC of 2008 - what actually happened?
  2. How badly can a bear market treat us?
  3. What damage did the bear do to a typical $100,000 portfolio?
  4. What is best? 
  • Hold on for the ride? Or
  • Selectively sell stocks at strategic points to lock in profits?
See the answers in the slides (with discussion in the Premium Member Speaker Notes).
[ref-2011-07a]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
23 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 1MB
68 slides on 34 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 2MB
68 slides on 68 pages

How to avoid the next bear market - coming soon
(aka "Anti-decimation" revised)
July 2011

NOTE: This presentation is updated July 2013 above.

This presentation is the latest version with updated charts of the second half (ie. Part 2) of the earlier "Anti-decimation..." presentation. The key features in this version are:
  1. Stan Weinstein's 30-week MA strategy for market awareness and bear avoidance, including how well it foretold the Australian 2008 GFC bear market.
  2. Some technical chart indicators and "divergence", including: Momentum, RSI, and the usefulness of the Wilson ATR Trailing Stop indicator.
  3. Charting software to help spot bear markets.
See the details in the slides (with discussion and charts in the Premium Member Speakers Notes).
[ref-2011-07b]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
23 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 2½MB
68 slides on 34 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 2½MB
68 slides on 68 pages

U3A presentation
Candlesticks, Stop Loss, and Contrarian Investing
June 2011


This presentation to the U3A (Manningham) Sharemarket Group (March 2011) was a recap of three topics, plus an introduction to the new material regarding Contrarian Investing Redefined.
A discussion about Candlesticks, Volume and Stop Loss.
Also an introduction to: Contrarian Investing Redefined.

 

[ref-2011-06]

Back to Top...
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1½ MB
8 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 3MB
46 slides on 23 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 2MB
47 slides on 47 pages

Brainy's Share Market GEMs
(Wall Street Words of Wisdom)


The handout and slides available at right were delivered to the Melbourne ATAA meeting (April 2011), and again to the Perth ATAA (May 2011). They are an updated version of the set delivered to Manningham U3A Sharemarket Group (March 2011).

It can take many years of reading text books and newspapers, attending lectures and seminars, and watching news reports, to hear a number of those very useful “tips” and observations about the share market. We can call them Share Market GEMs, or pearls of wisdom. They might be very useful clichés, adages, proverbs, axioms or infamous Wall Street sayings. BUT, watch out for the furphies!

Over many years, Robert has accumulated a long list of more than 90 of these Share Market GEMs, many of which are great snippets of very useful information. But be careful, because some of the touted Wall Street sayings are actually furphies!

In this presentation Robert shares many of the more useful, and the more contentious, GEMs. “A rising tide lifts all boats” — or does it?  “It's time in the market that is more important, because we can't time the market” — the market professionals who tout this one obviously know nothing about technical analysis. “Sell in May and go away”.  Show me a list of Blue chip shares — are they really “blue chip”? Public floats — a great way to make money (not!). In Australia, a correction or bear market happens on average every 2.9 years, and the market takes an average of 3.2 years to recover to new highs. And did you know that the share market is like an elephant?
[ref-2011-03/gems]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size  1.4MB
28 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 3MB
84 slides on 42 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

The detailed notes and slides for Premium Toolbox Members. (will open in a new window).
file size 2MB
85 slides on 85 pages

GEMS (preview) + Picking Winners


This presentation to the U3A (Manningham) Sharemarket Group (March 2011) was a preview of the GEMs presentation that is being prepared for delivery to the Melbourne ATAA (April 2011), AND a section on "How to Pick Winners in today's market" - using Robert's Weekly Watch List table as a case study example of how to spot the winners.
 

[ref-2011-04]

Back to Top...
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size ¼ MB
6 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size ½ MB
16 slides on 8 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

Anti-decimation - How to avoid the next GFC. (will open in a new window).
file size ½ MB
16 slides on 16 pages

Anti-decimation - How to avoid the next GFC (vsn 9b)


Note: This presentation is now superseded
by two separate presentations above.

[posted 16 January 2011 and revised 10 March 2011]
This presentation is the absolute latest, updated, and modified version of the earlier "Anti-decimation..." presentations. This slide set supplants the set from both the Melbourne and Canberra ATAA presentations in late 2010. It was presented to the ATAA Sydney Chapter January 2011, and it was used as the basis of an interactive presentation to the Share Market Investment Club (East Doncaster Uniting Church) in March 2011. Also delivered to the Perth ATAA May 2011. It was originally delivered in a slightly different form to the Melbourne PC User Group WASINT in October 2010.
 

[ref-2011-01/fta02]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 2.3MB
41 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 4.4MB
120 slides on 60 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

Anti-decimation - How to avoid the next GFC. (will open in a new window).
file size 4.5MB
121 slides on 121 pages

Trading in Practise - 
A hands-on Workshop for BullCharts users


[posted January 2011]

This is the set of slides that was used at the December Melbourne BullCharts User Group meeting to explain the Trading Work Sheet.

[ref-tip01/2010-90]

Back to Top...

Free Handout
The free set of slide handout notes.
file size <1MB
Members Slides
The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size <1MB
26 slides on 13 pages
  

2010


Blue Chip Price Charts - 
Unlocking the Secrets Using BullCharts software


[posted 15 October 2010]
This presentation is yet another updated/modified version of the "Blue Chip Price Charts - Unlocking the Secrets" presentation listed below. It was delivered to Melbourne PC User Group WASINT on Tuesday 12 October 2010.
 
The content will soon be merged into another one of the recent presentations to eliminate the extra numbers of slide sets.

[ref-fta03]

Free Handout
The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
     

Blue Chip Price Charts - Unlocking the Secrets
 

This presentation was delivered Thursday 19 August 2010 to U3A (Manningham) and the ASA (Melbourne). [U3A - University of the Third Age; ASA - Australian Shareholders Association]
 
The session agenda:
  • The GFC — What actually happened?
  • What did this do to our investments?
  • What happened to a representative $100k portfolio?
  • Is there an alternative approach?
  • The crystal ball is real! (charts + indicators)
  • One possible strategy — Robert's "Weekly Watch List"
  • Funda-Technical Analysis — the juicy details.
Download an Extract of the Premium version of  Slides and Speaker Notes - which describes how badly a sample $100,000 portfolio was decimated in the GFC, and a realistic comparison to an alternative investment approach which utilises a strategy of capturing profits by selective sell-off at nominated trigger points. (These slides are included in the free Handouts and in the Slide set but without the Speaker Notes.)
[ref-fta01]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 4.5MB
87 slides on 43 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

Share Trading - Case Study (will open in a new window).
file size 4MB
86 slides on 86 pages

Technical Analysis - What is it?
 

This presentation is now superseded
by the updated version above.

A presentation of 40 minutes duration which is a cut-down version of Robert's 4-hour Technical Analysis Introduction seminar (the seminar runs every second month and is now called "Blue Chip Price Chart Secrets"). These slides are a subset of the full collection of slides in the seminar.

This presentation was delivered to the October 2009 meeting of the Melbourne ATAA. (This pdf file download is about 3.5MB).

The 100+ page handbook from the seminar is also available - in the OnLine Shop, or for Premium Members to download for free (now included with Premium Toolbox membership).
[ref-ta01]
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1.5MB
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 4MB
92 slides on 46 pages
(pending)

Share Trading Case Study


A presentation to the Australian BullCharts User Group (26 May 2010), explaining and demonstrating: Trade Entry, Initial Stop Loss, Risk Amount, Target Price, Risk versus Reward, Reward to Risk Ratio, Trailing Stop.




[ref-st01]

Back to Top...
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 0.5MB
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file less than 2MB
30 slides on 15 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

Share Trading - Case Study (will open in a new window).
less than 1MB
30 slides on 30 pages

Investing / Trading Strategy - Case Study


A presentation to the Manningham U3A group (17 June 2010), explaining and demonstrating: Funda-Technical Analysis, the use of technical chart indicators as a high-level market filter, as well as for stock selection for entry, and to specify stock exit strategy.

The Slides+SpeakerNotes Premium Members' version will be available soon.


[ref-st02]

Back to Top...
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 0.5MB
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 0.5MB
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

Share Trading - Case Study (not yet available).
(download
available soon)

How to spot a Bear Market
.

This presentation for the U3A group in Manningham (February 2010) looks at how bad the bear markets can really be, and how to use the Weinstein 30-week SMA, and the Twiggs Money Flow indicator to look out for a bear market.

It uses a key part of Robert's weekly market analysis strategy for analysing the market.

More information about bear markets is here.

[ref-bbm01]

Back to Top...
Free Handout
The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
Members Slides
The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 4MB
53 slides on 27 pages

(pending)

Aussie Bear and Bull Markets Analysis
(Revision 9)

This presentation (January 2010) initially takes a quick look at the newspaper headlines that often seem to contradict each other "market is up 10%...", when it is actually "down 5%...". And it explains that Weekly charts show us different numbers compared to Daily or Monthly charts.

It describes the last 7 bear markets / corrections, and the amount of damage they did - including the amount of time taken to reach new highs. Then it looks at the last 8 bull markets, and the amount of increase. It finishes off by introducing the topic of chart indicators to help identify turning points in the market.

This presentation has developed from the Beware the Bears one below. And it was used to start the Weekly Share Market Analysis that Robert now does on a weekly basis as a part of his own trading strategy. He can share his weekly analysis thoughts with you by email - simply register your interest.

[ref-bbm02]
Free Handout
The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 1MB
Members Slides
The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 4MB
76 slides on 38 pages
(pending)

2009


Beware the Share Market Bears (they are never far away)
 
Revision 6 - Nov 18th 2009

This presentation was originally entitled
"The 10 Key Lessons from the GFC (for Traders and Investors)".
It has been renamed and massively updated.

It provides some background into the GFC of 2008-9, then reminds us that "trends" are important. The ten key lessons from the GFC are then espoused in some detail. This includes some sample cycles (eg. investment clock, decennial cycle, and property and Presidential cycles).

The presentation goes on to provide some technical chart features and indicators that can be used to help identify turning points in the market so that we can be on the lookout for the share market bears.

This presentation has been delivered to: the Manningham U3A, the Melb PC User Group WASINT Special Interest Group and the EIS group (of Phil Anderson) in November 2009.

For some free information on this topic, see Robert's
"The 10 Key Lessons..." web page (the link just above).


[ref-bbm03]
Free Handout
The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 1MB
Members Slides
The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 4MB
136 slides on 68 pages
(pending)

10 Key Lessons from the GFC for investors and traders

May 2009

This session was initially conceived in late 2008 to help answer investors' questions about what actually happened in the infamous GFC, with the bear market crash of 2008.

It provides some background into the GFC, then reminds us that "trends" are important. The ten key lessons from the GFC are then espoused in some detail. This includes some sample cycles (eg. investment clock, decennial cycle, and property and Presidential cycles).

An updated version of this presentation was produced and entitled "Beware the Share Market Bears..." (see above).

[ref-10key]
Free Handout
The free set of slide handout notes.

file size 0.5MB
28 pages
Members Slides
The slides available for Toolbox Members.

file size 2MB
82 slides on 41 pages
(not available)

Seven ways to determine a Stop Loss position
 

A presentation to the Australian BullCharts User Group in Melbourne in October 2009. This describes 7 different ways to set a Stop Loss.

Of course, the notion of a Stop Loss is to help minimise losses on an investment if the price moves unfavourably. And it is to help protect profits if/as the price action moves favourably. The information in the presentation applies to both the Initial Stop, and to Trailing Stops. This is explained in the first few slides.

The presentation goes on to describe a number of different ways to determine a stop loss level.

[ref-stops02]
Free Handout
The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 1MB
Members Slides
The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 2MB
28 slides on 15 pages
(pending)

2007 - 2008


BullCharts - Author Strategy - Stan Weinstein
 

A presentation delivered to the Melbourne BullCharts User Group in January 2008.

This presentation introduces the concept of Author Strategies in the BullCharts charting software, and in particular Stan Weinstein's concepts as explained in his best selling book "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets". These concepts include Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis, and using a BullCharts Scan to search for stocks in a specific Market Stage.

[ref-weinstein01]

Back to Top...
Free Handout
The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 0.2MB
Members Slides
The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 0.3MB
21 slides on 11 page
(pending)

How to implement your Trading Strategy
in Charting Software (eg. BullCharts)


A presentation delivered to the July 2008 meeting of the Melbourne ATAA. 

This presentation starts off with some details about Trading Plans, which every trader should have. Then it covers the topics of trade entry, stops, and periodically revising stops.

One question for traders is the issue of how to monitor an open trade, and review the progress and raise trailing stops.

All these aspects are covered with reference to a realistic Trading Strategy example and uses a Watchlist, a Market Scan, and setting the price target.

[ref-strategy01]
Free Handout
The free set of slide handout notes.
(file size 0.5MB)
Members Slides
The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 2MB
45 slides on 23 pages
(pending)

MACD - Introduction
 

A simple presentation to introduce the MACD technical indicator, and the MACD Histogram, first delivered to the BullCharts User Group in February 2007, and repeated with updates in April 2011.

MACD - what is it? and how is it derived? This is covered in the first few slides, including the calculation for the Fast line and the Slow Signal line. It goes on to cover the MACD Histogram, and additional observations. Also see in the eBook Articles (especially TA-4230).


[ref-macd02]

Back to Top...
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
file size 0.5MB
6 pages
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 2MB
18 slides on 9 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

Share Trading - Case Study (not yet available).
file size 1MB
18 slides on 18 pages

Stop Loss - Introduction
 

A simple presentation to introduce the concept of Stop Loss, and how to implement it, delivered to the BullCharts User Group in March 2007.

The presentation also considers some of the possible triggers for people to make share purchases, and some triggers for selling. Knowing this can help us to set a better stop loss position.

Three stop loss approaches are covered - the P-SAR (Parabolic SAR) indicator,  ATR and the Wilson ATR Trailing Stop, and Daryl Guppy's Count Back Line (CBL). More details on these topics in the eBook Articles.

[ref-stops01]

Back to Top...
Free Handout

The free set of slide handout notes.
(file size 0.2MB)
Members Slides

The slides available for Toolbox Members.
file size 0.3MB
23 slides on 12 pages
Premium Member
Slides + Speaker Notes

Share Trading - Case Study (not yet available).
less than 1MB
22 slides on 22 pages

Back to Top..  

 * MA - Members' Area - for Toolbox Members only.
* Premium handouts are for Toolbox Premium Members.


The information presented herein represents the opinions of the web page content owner, and
are not recommendations or endorsements of any product, method, strategy, etc.
For financial advice, a professional and licensed financial advisor should be engaged.
Home | DISCLAIMER | Contact us

© Copyright 2006-2024, R.B.Brain - Consulting (ABN: 52 791 744 975)
Last revised: 9 February 2024

web page name = members-presentations