Robert's
Weekly Watch List

(public details)

Brainy's Share Market Toolbox.A feature of Brainy's Share Market Toolbox.

Robert analyses the state of the Australian share market on a weekly basis.
Recent analysis comments and overview charts are available here for public viewing.

Robert also runs a scan* over the market to look for new investing opportunities.
The results are shared in this Weekly Watch List below.

Premium Toolbox Members can see all the below details and a lot MORE here....
Casual Toolbox Users can register interest - see the big blue button below right.

Not a Toolbox Member? Find out what's included in Toolbox Membership and how to join.

Robert's Weekly Watch List (sample).The Weekly Watch List Table
Sample at right - click to see the sample in a new window.

The main (colour-coded) sections of the table
in the Watch List are as follows (more information is included in the FAQ section below):

1. Page Header section
Near the top of the page, in the upper right-hand corner, is a small colour-coded table with text. The text and colours together summarise the current "trend" of the market.
2. New on the list this week... (green)
This is a list of stocks that were not on the list last week, but which have appeared on the list this week.
3. Carry over from last week... (yellow)
This is a list of the stocks that were on the list last week, and which are still on the list this week.
4. Off the list this week... (salmon)
This is a list of the stocks that were on the list last week; but which have been removed this week.
How do stocks get onto the table?
See the selection criteria details below.

How to read the table?
  1. Robert is watching the stocks that are listed in the “New...” section, and the “Carry over...” section. He might purchase some of these; and he might not. This is NOT a recommendation for you to purchase, and it is NOT advice of any sort.
  2. Robert uses BullCharts software to scan the watchlist, and calculate the “Score”,
    referring to three chart indicators.
  3. Robert also peruses each price chart with indicators and makes a judgment call as to whether he should purchase any of these stocks.
What are the columns in the table? - See the details below.

Sort sequence - How are the rows of information sorted in the Watch List table? See details below.

More information about the Weekly Watch List table, and how the stocks are selected, and what we do next, is included in the Frequently Asked Questions section in the material below.

If you are ready to take that small step to become a Toolbox Member, see the How-To-Join information with all the details. If not, see the Frequently Asked Questions below.
Toolbox Premium Members...

Premium Toolbox Members can see the latest Weekly Watch Lists here, as well as archived copies of past Watch Lists. And there is information about exactly how we choose the stocks for the Watch List, and what we do with the list now that we have it.


Want to become a Member?

See the How-To-Join information with details about how to become a Toolbox Member.


Non-Members...

Robert would be happy to send you the Weekly Market Analysis email with a summary of the latest Watch List details, or simply keep you informed of new information as it becomes available. 
For Email Marketing you can trust

FAQ - Frequently Asked Questions
about Robert's Weekly Watch List
Is this advice?

This material is NOT advice of any sort.NO! - This is definitely not advice of any sort. We do not have an AFS License, nor does he take your personal financial situation into consideration. So there is not way that this information can be advice.

This information is for education only.

There is NO recommendation here to buy or sell and stocks, nor any other sort of investment.

You should always seek suitable advice from
a properly qualified professional licensed advisor
before making any investment decisions.


CAUTION!!

It can be said that any investing or trading strategy might be successful for one person, but not successful for another. This is due to a number of reasons, including one's own risk tolerance and psychological make-up.
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Is this a list of Hot Stock Tips?

Robert's Weekly Watch List might look like a list of Hot Stocks, or it might look like a list of Stock Tips - what to buy and what to sell. But it is not this at all. Robert might treat the list in this way because it suits his purpose, his strategy, and his investing risk tolerance.

So, what is the purpose?

Robert's Weekly Watch List is being shared as a sample application of how to use technical analysis for selecting possible investment opportunities. By following the links, and understanding the concepts, we can see the investing and trading strategy being used.
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Executive overview (ie. Brief summary)
  1. We start off with a list of preferred stocks.
  2. Once each week on a Friday night we "scan" the preferred stocks to identify those that meet certain selection criteria.
  3. If a stock mets the selection criteria, then it is included on the Weekly Watch List.
  4. And the stocks on the Weekly Watch List are all allocated a Score.
Preferred stocks - Which stocks do we select from?

For this "Weekly Watch List" strategy we are looking only at Australian listed companies. We want to minimise the risks - so we exclude speculative stocks. When we decide to exit a position, we will want to be able to exit the position quickly - so we will avoid illiquid stocks (ie. stocks which don't trade frequently enough, or which have very low turn-over). Stocks with relatively high debt levels have a greater risk of defaulting on their debt when times are tough - so we will avoid these stocks as well.

For now, the simplest way to achieve all the above is to use the stocks that are included in a major index like the S&P/ASX 200 (ie. the XJO). For a longer list of stocks we could apply Funda-Technical Analysis and select from all stocks. [By the way - Which stocks are in the XJO index?]
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Selection criteria - Rising Trend and Moving Averages

A rising trend, with two Moving Averages/ The criteria that we use here to put a stock onto the Weekly Watch List is based on the notion of a rising Moving Average. This is one way to quickly spot a rising trend - more details on trend-spotting here. In fact, for this strategy we look for two Moving Averages to both be rising for 3 weeks. The sample chart at right is a lovely example of a healthy rising trend (click on the image for a larger version in a new window). Note how much this share has risen in price, and over what time period - not bad.

But which two Moving Averages do we use? - See the details in the Premium Member section of the Toolbox.


Trends - "The Trend is Your Friend"
Brainy's "3Ways Rule (in 3Times)"
The first plank of our stock selection strategy is the notion of a rising trend. If we can spot a reliable rising trend in share price, and then ride the trend, then we are at least half way there.

See Brainy's "3Ways Rule (in 3Times)" for information about trends,
as well as more details on the Trends page.
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The score

Each of the stocks that is chosen to be included on the Weekly Watch List is allocated a Score. This score is calculated as a part of the BullCharts scan, using the BullScan criteria, and each scan criteria is assigned a "weighting". A stock that meets all criteria ends up with a "Score" of 100 out of 100. If a stock does not meet some of the criteria, it's "Score" will be less than 100. If a stock meets none of the criteria, then it is not on the list at all.

The details of these scan criteria and the score calculation are available to Toolbox Premium Members here. There are some clues in the next section below "Tell me more about...".
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Tell me more about this Investing and Trading Strategy

The complete and detailed Investing and Trading Strategy that Robert uses with this Watch List approach is explained in detail across several of Brainy's eBook (PDF) Articles. Anyone can view the first page of each Article, but only Toolbox Members (and Premium Members) can view the Articles in full. (And Robert actually has other strategies to suit different circumstances.)

Relevant Articles and links for Toolbox Members (non-Members can see the "Page1" items):
  • Investing and Trading Plans and Strategies
    Article ST-6405, "Robert's Weekly Watchlist" (page1 here).
    This article includes the case study Trading/Investing Plan, and Trading Strategy, using the templates from the following articles:

  • This Watch List Strategy
    Article TA-6050, "Robert's Weekly Watchlist Strategy" (page1 here).
    This article talks about money management and risk management, and the stock selection criteria in terms of technical analysis. That is, rising Moving Averages, the ROAR, a rising MACD, Momentum, and the exit criteria (Wilson ATR Trailing Stop).

  • BullCharts selective stock filtering
    Article BC-10-400, "Scans - Match (not) all criteria" (page1 here).
    This article includes a discussion and demonstration of how to use the BullScan weighting factors to get a "Score" for each selected stock.

  • The ROAR value:
    • Article BC-26-200, "Author Strategy - Alan Hull (and ROAR)" (page1 here).
      This 8-page article covers a number of topics including: the Alan Hull ActVest and ActTrade strategies and indicators that are included in BullCharts; ROAR; ROAD; the Range+ indicator; Hull MMA indicator; the relevant BullCharts market scans and templates; and Brainy's own very useful BullCharts template to display the Range indicator on a weekly chart with the daily candles superimposed.

  • MACD indicator
    Article TA-4230, "MACD - Moving Average Convergence Divergence" (page1 here).
    This 7-page article includes information on the MACD indicator, and the MACD Histogram, as well as the notion of MACD Divergence.

  • Momentum indicator
    Article TA-4610, "Momentum Indicator" (page1 here).
    This article discusses the Momentum indicator, and also discusses the notion of a Moving Average of Momentum (using 28-periods).

  • Trailing Stops and the Wilson ATR Trailing Stop
    Article TA-5100, "Indicators and Tools for Stops" (page1 here).
    This article includes information on: Count Back Line (CBL), the various indicators that can be used for stops (eg. P-SAR, JB Trailing Stop, ATR Trailing Stop, etc.); and a discussion of the Wilson ATR Trailing Stop. Also see the Presentation slides "Seven Ways to Determine a Stop Loss Position", or a more basic introduction "Stop Loss - Introduction".
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Is this information reliable? Has it been tested?

A specific stock selection strategy has been used to identify the stocks to appear on this Watch List. This strategy has been back-tested using BullCharts and TradeSim over specific date ranges. The results of the back-testing are being prepared and will be available here soon.
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Please send me the Weekly Watch List each week

We are happy to send you the Weekly Market Analysis email each Saturday, which includes relevant comments and the links to the latest Weekly Watch List table.

To get this, all you need to do is subscribe to Brainy's Share Market Toolbox as a Premium Toolbox Member - more details are here. See the How-To-Join information with details about how to become a Toolbox Member. Not convinced about Toolbox membership? See the reasons why you should join.
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How is the Watch List information prepared?

BullCharts charting software.All of the charts and the watch list results are produced and derived using the Australian BullCharts charting software.

The market is scanned using the BullScan tool with specified selection criteria, and price charts with indicators are viewed using the BullCharts software as required.
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The columns in the table?

The columns in the table include:
  • The stock code (eg. BHP) and stock name.
  • ROAR value.
  • Close price at the end of the week.
  • Two possible Trailing Stop positions.
  • The number of consecutive weeks that each stock has been on the Watch List.
  • The percentage change in price since first appearing on the Watch List.
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The sort sequence for the rows in the table?

The rows in the table are firstly grouped into three categories:
  • Stocks that are new on the list this week.
  • Stocks that were on the list last week.
  • Stocks that were on the list last week; but are gone off the list this week.
Then within each of these three groupings, the stocks are sorted as follows:
  • By SCORE, so those with the highest score of 100 are at the top of the list.
  • For any stocks with the same SCORE, they are simply sorted by Stock Code.
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What? Some of these stocks are losers?

Yes, some of the stocks on the Watch List will lose money. That's one of the facts about investing and trading.

BUT, with proper "money management" we can still come out in front!!

This is because if wewe cut our losses short, and let our profits run, then the accumulated profits should be greater than our losses.

Even if we have a win to loss ratio of 50%! That is, if we have 5 wins and 5 losses, we can come out ahead provided our profits are larger than our losses.
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Why is a stock "off the list" if the WATRTS is not broken?

Our selection criteria says that to be "on the list" a stock must have two specific moving averages increasing for the last three weeks. Now, it is possible for one of these moving averages to stop increasing for a week or two, because the share price is taking a "breather"; but for the price to stay above our Stop Loss level. And the price can then continue to rise, and cause both moving averages to rise again.

So, why don't we fiddle with the selection criteria to keep these on the list?

There are two reasons: The stock might be showing early signs of weakness, in which case we can monitor the stock and be on guard in case of a pending fall. Secondly, a temporary sign of price weakness might be an opportunity to enter the stock again at a cheap price.
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Some stocks on the list do nothing for the first few weeks - Why?

This observation is a common occurrence with stocks that break out above resistance, of from a recent trading range. It can often be seen in different time periods (on daily charts, or weekly). The stock breaks out, but some people want to recoup their investment at these recently high prices so they sell, and with the excess of sellers in the market the price falls away. But once these sellers are gone from the market, then only the buyers are left to take the stock on to higher highs.

When they fall, the stock can even fall lower than anticipated; but it can stop falling at a recent support level which might be the bottom of a recent trading range. A picture tells a thousand words, and this is one it is useful to view the price chart.

This process can take several weeks to unfold.
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The information presented herein represents the opinions of the web page content owner, and
are not recommendations or endorsements of any product, method, strategy, etc.
For financial advice, a professional and licensed financial advisor should be engaged.


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Copyright 2010-2013, R.B.Brain - Consulting (ABN: 52 791 744 975).
Last revised: 18 January, 2013.