Australian Share Market

BULL Markets 1988-2014


Why study past bull markets?
 
It is very useful to be aware of the characteristics of past bull markets.
How did they start? - with a whimper? or by surprise?
How long did they last?
How did they end? - Not without warning!
How can we tell? - It's all in the price charts.
And for goodness sake,
remember the bigger picture,
because the market is like an elephant.
Put each bull market into context,
and take a look at where
the market has come from in
the months and years prior.
Perhaps it is overdue?
The market is like an elephant.

One of the tools in Brainy's Share Market Toolbox.

 The charts below show the Australian bull markets from 1988. Last update:- 8 April 2014

Aussie Bear Markets and Corrections information is also available.

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to sections below

Now, read the analysis, or jump straight to the Observations and Conclusions at the bottom.
Note the following regarding the notes below:
  • This analysis is based on Weekly charts of the Australian All Ordinaries (XAO) index.
  • Bull Market start? - How do we know when a Bull Market has started? Well, there is no
    prescriptive definition. The best we can do is eyeball the chart. (See Wikipedia for a comment.)
  • Bull Market end? - How do we know when a Bull Market has ended? For the analysis here,
    as soon as there is a fall of 10% or more (the Close on a Weekly chart), the bull market
    is declared over.
  • Line charts - Mostly line charts are used below (not candle charts)
    to keep the chart relatively simple. These still demonstrate most of the key points.
  • Daily or weekly? - It is perhaps more useful to use daily charts for this analysis, because
    the daily close prices are very important (more important than weekly close prices).
    However, over the longer time periods the daily line chart can get a little messy.
  • Candlestick charts - It is likely that candlestick charts would contribute more to the analysis,
    but would potentially complicate the discussion.
Brief comment about
the charts below

The charts and comments below are purely observations of the market. They are of a general nature, and for general education only.

No adviceThere is no advice.

It is recommended that you do NOT make any investment decisions based on any of the information here.


Click on any chart to see
a larger view in a new window.
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Toolbox Members can see detailed comments about the charts below, in the Members Area of Brainy's Share Market Toolbox web site.
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The charts shown here are of the Australian All Ordinaries index (XAO)
which is an aggregation of the "top" 500 companies in the Australian market.  
(What does "top" mean? See details about Aussie indexes.)

The charts below are produced using the Australian BullCharts charting software.
Summary TABLE
1988 to 2014

The table at right is a summary list
of the bull markets.

How do we identify the start and end of a bull market? For this exercise, we have eyeballed the price chart, and made a judgement call about the start of the bull market period at a significant market low. And the bull market has ended at the last High before a decline of at least 10%.

The "Amt (%)" is the percentage rise from the recent market Low to the last High.

The column "Duration...Yrs". The shortest bull market listed was 6 months and the longest was almost 4 years.
 
Bull Markets — 1988 to 2014
(updated 8 April 2014)
Start
Date
From
Point
Bull
Market?
Amt
(%)
Duration Ave Amt pa (%)
Wks Yrs
Feb 1988 B Bull Market 37 25 0.5 77.0
Apr 1989 D Bull Market 25 26 0.5 50.0
Dec 1990 F Bull Market 37 43 0.8 44.7
Nov 1992 H Bull Market 70 64 1.2 56.9
Jan 1995 J Bull Market 50 137 2.6 19.0
Aug 1998 L2 Bull Market 39 146 2.8 13.9
Feb 2003 R Bull Market 138 228 4.4 31.5
Mar 2009 T Bull Market 61 58 1.1 54.7
Sep 2011 V Bull Market 30 85 1.6 18.7
1988 to 1994
Summary CHART 1
A picture is worth a thousand words. The chart at right is the pictorial representation of the first four lines in the table above.

For more detail and comment about each of these bull market periods, see the Members Area of Brainy's Share Market Toolbox.
Bull Market Summary (1988-1994)
1991 to 2009
Summary CHART 2
A picture is worth a thousand words. The chart at right is the pictorial representation of the last five lines in the table above.

Note:
  • This chart is drawn with a log scale on the vertical value axis. Why? Hint: Note the relative size of each bull market rise.
  • More comment on this is in the Members Area.
For more detail and comment about each of these bull market periods, see the Members Area of Brainy's Share Market Toolbox.
Bull Market Summary (1992-2009)
Bull Market "T"
Finished - May 2010
This chart represents just the last two lines in the table above. If we define the end of a bull market as the highest point just prior to a market fall of at least 10% (the start of another correction), then this bull market had clearly ended at the high "U" in April 2010.

Note:
  • It can be argued that a bull market started at the last market low in March 2009.
  • By late April 2010 the XAO index had risen 61% over 59 weeks, including some significant range trading (sideways movement) for 36 weeks (enclosed by the red rectangle).
Bull Market "V"
Finished - May 2013
Technically, acording to our definition here, this bull market finished with the Correction U4 in May 2013. For more detail and comment about each of these bull market periods, see the Members Area of Brainy's Share Market Toolbox.

Bull Markets "T" and "V"
Comparison Chart
The chart at right shows these bull markets superimposed. This puts the timescale and percentage change into perspective.

Each line on the chart starts at "Week zero" and "0%". The chart shows how each bull market developed over time, with the price rising week by week.

Note that Bull Market "R" continued for so long that it runs off the edge of this chart.
 
Bull Market "T" finished in May 2010.
 
For more detail and comment about each of these bull market periods, see the Members Area of Brainy's Share Market Toolbox.



 
Toolbox Members can click on this chart
for a larger image.
Bull Markets Comparison Chart
More details and individual charts and discussion
about the Bull Markets above is available
in the Members Area of
Brainy's Share Market Toolbox.

How did they start? - with a whimper? or by surprise?
How long did they last? How did they end? - Not without warning!
See more details in in the Members Area of the Toolbox.
 
Conclusions
Some possible conclusions include:
  • The market can move a long way very quickly; and once a bull market starts, it can run for several months.
  • More detailed conclusions are listed in the Members Area of the Toolbox.
More details about Aussie Bull and Bear markets?

Aussie Bear Markets and Corrections information is available.

More details about the Bull Markets above is available from the Members Area of Brainy's Share Market Toolbox.  

The information presented herein represents the opinions of the web page content owner, and
are not recommendations or endorsements of any product, method, strategy, etc.
For financial advice, a professional and licensed financial advisor should be engaged.


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Last revised: 11 April, 2014.