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Santa Rally - every year or not?
|Monthly Toolbox eNews Update ||#74 - Nov-Dec 2015|
This Share Market Toolbox eNews Update email
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Every year at some time in December, in the lead up to the Christmas period, there tends to be a discussion about a possible Santa Rally in the weeks ahead.
But what is a Santa Rally?
Does it happen every year? Or perhaps in many years? Is it likely to
happen again in the next Christmas New Year period? When it occurs, how
long does it last? Is it really just a 7-day window at about Christmas
time? These questions and more are covered in this edition of the eNews Update.
I first posted my Santa Rally web page in
the Toolbox in 2013, with some charts and observations about possible
Santa Rallies - depending on your definition for a Santa Rally.
this edition of the eNews I have written three new eBook (PDF) Articles
with 14 price charts of the index over a total of 15 pages. The
information is similar to the content of the Santa Rally web page, but
it's in a nice printable format and with extra observations and
See all the details in this edition's focus section below. And please do have a Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.
If you would like to see a history of the Toolbox changes, see the special content update blog, and you can select the option there to "Follow" that blog to get details about new updates as soon as they are made.
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Toolbox Members and BullCharts mailing list members should not
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mentioned here, and in the referred eBook Articles, or web pages, is for
general education only, and is not advice of any sort.
Please read on...
About these Toolbox eNews Update emails...
Here's a short note to the recently new Toolbox Members, and new readers of this eNews email:- These share market Toolbox eNews emails
always go to Toolbox Members (a part of the Toolbox service), and to
the people who have registered to receive occasional information about
the Share Market. This is a bi-monthly email (or sometimes monthly)
with some pointers and tips on focused topics - see a quick intro to the eNews emails
. They often include references to specific eBook Articles
in my Share Market Toolbox
, as well as key web pages in the free area of the Toolbox (eg. on the extensive Share Market web page
I have been writing the eBook Articles since October 2008 - that's a
few years now - and these eNews emails help you to navigate to related
and useful information each month. You can see the past eNews emails in
the eNews Archive
Price charts summarise the underlying opinions
and emotions of the market participants.
Every chart tells a story.
It pays to understand the stories in the price charts.
The focus in this edition:
Santa Rally - all the details
I was doing the research for this edition of the eNews, and studying
the charts of the Australian market index, I stepped back and realised
that in the last five years the market has rallied at least 7 percent
over at least a 12 week period starting at some time between
mid-November and mid-December. This is shown in the chart at right which
is now posted on the Santa Rally web page
(Toolbox Members click on the chart for a larger image). Please note
that this is NOT a guarantee (nor even a suggestion) that the rally will
occur again this year, nor in any other year to come. It is simply an
observation of what's happened in the past. If it ever happens again, we
should not be surprised.
updated Santa Rally web page includes several charts of the All
Ordinaries (XAO) index in the seven years from 2008 to 2014. Don't
forget that the original definition of the term Santa Rally
was coined by Yale Hirsch in 1972. For this edition of the eNews I have updated the existing Santa Rally web page, and written the following three new eBook Articles based on the content of that web page (see them listed here
, in the left hand column):
- eBook Article ST-6320, "Santa Rally - Introduction" - This new 4-page article provides the background behind the notion of the term Santa Rally and offers some discussion about why the term might be in common use today.
- eBook Article ST-6325, "Santa Rally - Yale Hirsch charts"
- This new 5-page article considers whether a Santa Rally occurred in
the seven years of this study, as per Yale Hirsch's original definition.
- eBook Article ST-6330, "Santa Rally - More charts"
- This new 6-page article includes price charts showing that in many of
the years in question, a rally occurred over several weeks at some time
during the December-January period.
my growing collection of eBook (PDF) Articles, don't forget to see the
latest Table of Contents pages for these articles (see links in the
side-bar above right). You can also see the Table of Contents for all eBook Articles (recently new or updated ones are highlighted), and the Toolbox Master Index which includes the eBook Articles, plus web page references, and helpful videos.
eBook (PDF) Articles - Summary
Since October 2008 I have accumulated quite a collection of eBook (PDF) Articles
on three subject areas - Share Trading/Investing, Technical Analysis
and BullCharts software. There are now 738 pages of material in 162
eBook articles. These Articles are invaluable for both new and
experienced investors and traders. I write brief monthly notes in this
eNews email to highlight specific Articles on targeted topics, and
sometimes referring to new or updated web pages in the Toolbox (also see
a history of Toolbox updates). I am also writing new Articles and updating existing ones as required. For more information please see:
Article front pages
For any new readers of my Toolbox eBook Articles, there are some useful introductory Articles including an Introduction and an Overview Article for each of the three subject areas. You can see them here:
What if you have some
sort of problem with accessing the Toolbox and any of these Articles? Or
maybe the Username and Password doesn't work. If there is any problem
at all, simply contact me by email or phone. The best email address for
this is: email@example.com
Occasionally emails disappear - the system thinks they are spam, or the
ISP might think they are spam. If I don't reply within a day or so,
please contact me by either email address or phone
is nothing secret in this email, so feel free to forward it to someone
if you think they might benefit from the information, or from being a
Toolbox Member. The easiest way to do this is to use the "Forward Email"
link at the bottom.
am also confident that my Toolbox Members won't be sharing their
username and password with non-members. It is not fair that I spend all
this time preparing the materials, and then my Toolbox Members pay money
to have legitimate access, only to let some people pay nothing to read
and view the details.
feel free to email an individual Article to others as a sample; but if
they want online access to all the materials, it is pretty cheap, so
they should subscribe as a Toolbox Member. There is information about Toolbox Membership in the Quick Links section at right.
Always happy to receive feedback, or suggestions for new content or improvements.
Until next month,
happy investing or trading,
Robert B. Brain
(mobile: 0438 355 910)
ps: watch out for the sharks in the ocean!